Remember a couple weeks ago how I said that markets are driven by consumer confidence and that after a couple weeks of better news people will start spending part of that pent-up savings?

Perhaps this is one of those indicators. A stock market news and commentary website is suggesting that Phoenix real estate is a good investment, citing that our economy always bounces back.

Other news sources are reporting initial upswings in new home construction.

I reject all of the double-dip recession talk. In fact, the recent increase in the stock market seems to have thrown that in to serious doubt. I certainly rejected the talk of a wave of new foreclosed properties flooding the market.

Maybe going in to the holidays we will start having some good news. That would be a nice synergy: holiday spending mixed with higher consumer confidence and really, really low home prices.

So, how’s this for an eventful evening?

I’m driving along Osborn Rd., near my home near 7th Ave and Osborn Road. Heading east. It’s dark. Last Thursday evening.

Got the setting in your head?

I pass this guy on the south side of the street (so, on my right for the directionally-challenged). He is just finishing tagging a large apartment building sign with green paint.

My jaw drops as I think, “Really, right out here where we can all see you? Really?”

I slow down to get a look. He sees me. I drive ahead a little to pull over on the north side of the street to call Crimestop, police non-emergency. (That’s 602-262-6151, in case you ever need it.)

I’m sitting in the parking lot of Superstar Video fighting with my iPhone to find the number, and he is moving east at a good pace. You have to keep a good pace up while tagging, you know. It’s just part of the mystique, I guess.

I look over my shoulder while the phone is dialing and he is crossing over the street to my side, right toward me. This is not a little kid. He’s no Andre the Giant either, but I’m guessing that he did not spend much time in the library over lunch hours. He is somewhere in his late teens or early twenties, I figure.

I’m on the phone with Crimestop trying to tell her two things at the same time: 1) I just saw this guy tag a sign and I’m watching him. I need to get cops here before I lose him; and 2) this guy is approaching my car, looking right at me with that arms-spread-out, hands-up, “wha’s up”, “you better move along” look.

She’s a little disbelieving for a second because police non-emergency normally expects to get calls about neighbors who won’t stop dumping yard waste in each other’s ally space. I’m sure it didn’t help that I was talking so quickly that she probably thought I was a Russian immigrant.

So, I’m staring at him and talking to her, not letting up. He’s giving me his best, “I’ll cut you” look.

I should mention at this point that I REALLY HATE TAGGERS. I mean with a passion. People work their butts off for their property, and these guys not only deface somebody else’s work, but they also make all of our lives just a little harder with every paint spray and pen stroke.

Don’t tell me its art. Don’t tell me its culture.

Tag up a piece of canvass that you paid for yourself and then I’ll believe you.

I guess he figured that he had successfully intimidated me, or that he better move on because I was still on the phone with somebody at this point.

He moves off ahead of me to the east and then easily, lightly reaches his arm out to a car parked 20 feet in front of me and sprays across the front hood.

I’m telling this to the Dispatch and I think she was taken aback by the gall of it as well, by the tone in her voice.

She say’s, “hold on, I’m trying to get some officers to you.” It goes  quiet and tagger guy is moving east more quickly now, crossing 7th Ave.

I’m not about to lose this guy. My first perp, man! Are you kidding?

A tricked-out Prius, but not mine...

So, I swing my turbo-charged Toyota Pious out on to the street and hang back to watch were he is going. It was amazing that this guy had gotten himself up to the pace of an Olympic speed walker, but still kept that arms-swinging-across-the-butt, chest-high swagger that said, “Don’t cross me, man! I’ll paint you green!”

A few steps later, I see the a white spinning paint can leave his hand and disappear behind  bush in front of Safeway and what used to be the old Furr’s Cafeteria (the octogenarians who used to hold up there would have been aghast at the sight).

So, I drive ahead of him so it looks like I gave up and I circled around in the Safeway parking lot, the whole time talking to Dispatch. I keep telling her where he is, even as he crosses back to the south side of the street and continues east.

Then a major development in the world of Ken, the Perp Tracker: the suspect takes off his dark shirt to reveal a white undershirt. Dark shirt thrown aside, he is starting to lose his swagger in favor of a faster gait.

This guy is a master of disguises. Not only did he ditch the paint can, but he changed clothes and now he’s running. Surely nobody will recognize him!

I swing out past the shoppers; open trunks, canvass reusable shopping bags in mid-pack, and on to the street again. Now he is on my right, but ahead of me by about 50 feet. He ducks in to one of the long, low-slung apartment buildings to my right and I pass as I watch him move down the breezeway, as if he just got back home from a light jog around the block.

I’m trying to describe this to Dispatch, who is intermittently leaving my company. She is trying to try to patch me in directly to the police line so I can talk to the officers in the cars and in the helicopter, which is on its way.

It did not work, unfortunately. VERY unfortunately. Because, admit it folks, how cool would THAT have been?!

So, I’m sitting on Osborn with my hazard lights on where I last saw him and I’m thinking I’d better move. If the cars going around me don’t take off a rear view mirror, then the police who are on their way are likely to think my dinky little car is an old plastic bag on the side of the road and drive over it.

So, I go back over to the Safeway parking lot and park closest to where I lost him. Dispatch (I’m great friends with her by now, so I can call her “Dispatch.” We’ve been through a lot together, don’t you know.), is asking me whether the officers are there yet.

By now two police SUVs are pulling up; one down the ally around where he went and another searching the street. The helicopter (yes, a helicopter for a tagger) is over head looking for him. I distinctly remember saying to Dispatch, “Wow, they got here fast! I love you guys! Great job!”

Yep. Adrenaline makes you say stupid things.

A third SUV enters Osborn further to the east as I see Perpie (I can call him “Perpie” now. We’ve been through a lot together, don’t you know.) walk out of the apartment buildings and back to Osborn. His entire demeanor is as if to say, “Me? I’m just out for a stroll while I compose some poetry about dandelions.”

I’m telling Dispatch, “That’s him, you’ve got him in the helicopter spotlight”, as if her desk is in the helicopter and she can see any of this. The officers just pull him aside and detain him. No running. No “Cops” Reggae music soundtrack.

Dispatch, being the experienced and busy woman that she is gets my digits, asks me to stay put and hangs up.

So, to speed up this story (because I know that you probably have work that you should be doing right now, rather than reading this), I talk to the officer, identify Perp, take the officers to the can of paint, show them where he spray painted the car, which is now gone (poor people), and point out the tagged apartment building sign.

I was especially proud when one cop, after the officers had hauled Perp away and we were all talking in front of Superstar Video, gives me the best complement I’d ever heard. He said, “Man, I’ve never seen a civilian tail a suspect like that. You should have heard the play-by-play on the radio. We knew just where to get him.”

Now, this is just a tagging. I know. It seems silly in some ways to detail this chase. We are not talking about armed robbery here.

But I am simultaneously proud of being a part of catching Perp and cognizant of the comedy of a guy like me driving around in a little Toyota Prius with police and a helicopter tracking a small time crook.

It makes me realize what our officers go through night after night and how happy I am that I don’t have to do it.

Epilogue:

The next day I went out to my car and found that he tagged my driver’s side headlight while he was crossing in front of my car, trying to intimidate me.

I took pictures and let the reporting officer know.

In re-reading this story, it is neither as funny or as exciting as it was when it happened. Again, its the adrenaline.

I am also reflecting on the fact that a kid like this, whom I learned is 17 years old, probably has nobody to take him aside and tell him, “This is not the route you want to take for your life. Divert now and let me tell you how.” That makes me deeply sad.

However, I still feel that we should not back down from people like this out of fear. That is when we lose our neighborhoods again.

Quick update!

Please see this PDF file for a list of all 32 homes that are on the Group Open House tour tomorrow, Sunday, October 3rd.

This Group Open House covers the whole valley. Please have a look and visit a few homes! This is a buyer’s market, so this is the time to look!

Leif Swanson and I are hosting three great open houses this weekend and I’d love for you to come by or please share this post with your friends.

1) 1821 East Rose Lane, Phoenix 85016. Saturday from from 1pm to 4pm.

There is a neighborhood hidden east of SR-51, walking distance to Granada Park, the Biltmore, with views of Piestewa Peak. I drive past these stately homes on the way to running the Arizona Canal in the morning. The way the streets are configured it is difficult to get back there unless you are meant to be there. As such, the homes are protected from harassing cut-through traffic and other distractions. This is a wonderful and sprawling 2,566 square foot home in the heart of this neighborhood, on Rose Lane. At $398,000, this home is priced aggressively for the neighborhood.

My fellow agent, Leif Swanson, will be in attendance at this house. If you have questions before you go, please call him at (602) 686-3852.

Check out the MLS listing here. Check out the map here.

2) 311 W Glenrosa Ave., Phoenix 85013. Sunday from 1pm to 4pm.

This expertly updated ranch in CenPho is walking distance from Light Rail and convenient to all the CenPho attractions. You can walk to Lux, Pane Bianco, Copper Star and all the shopping on 7th. That’s heaven! You should see the upgrades: triple-pane Pella windows in the living room, a block addition to the master bedroom, with bath and a lush back yard. This 2br/2ba home is a great first home at only $155,000, its roomy and move-in ready.

Check out the MLS listing here. Check out the map here.

3) 1520 West Berridge Ln, Phoenix 85015. Sunday 1pm to 4pm

This mid-Century red brick home morphs into a New Century Masterpiece. Completely upgraded, this home is a collaboration between architects and designers, proving that the best of historic and modern can be brought together to create something truly special in Phoenix.  It is like living in a historic home without all of the hassles of an old home.  The custom designed modern exterior foyer and rear covered patio wall are finished in Brazilian Ipe, a design nod to Ralph Haver and Al Beadle.

Check out the MLS listing here. Check out the map here.

Also see the the virtual tour here.

If you can’t make these times and you would like to get a private showing,  give me a call at 602-456-9388.

Over the last couple years I’ve seen a thousand renovations; aka “reno”, aka “fix n’ flip”.

99% of them are homes that somebody got at a foreclosure auction or directly from the bank. They throw mocha colored paint on the walls, white trim on the doors and baseboards, granite on the counters and some appliances in the kitchen.

These certainly have their purpose, for sure. But I am most inspired by renovations that either “green it up” through efficiency improvements or just have a great sense of style.

Check out this new listing. I’m very excited about it because the owners really took the time to get it right.

Imagine that you are given one mid-century home, a team of architects, designers and contractors. Your job is to modernize the home. Make a statement. Go.

My clients Robin and Russell did just that. They are leading the way in this established neighborhood in Central Phoenix by creating something truly special.

Follow this link to look at the listing. Click here for an extensive list of  renovation details, including architects and designers.

But I want to point out some things to think about if you are thinking of renovating, or if you are in the market and look at renovated homes. This home is a great example because they did such a good job with it.

1) Take your time. The owners got architects and designers out of L.A. to really think through how to turn this traditional red brick home in to something that stands out.

Lesson: Don’t just run in with a can of paint and some cheap marble counter tops. Real estate agents, in particular, notice (and they assume you are hiding something).

2) Add features that add to the home’s presence. The custom designed modern exterior foyer and rear covered patio wall are finished in Brazilian Ipe, a design nod to Ralph Haver and Al Beadle. They found a way to make the home stand out, but that was respectful of the architectural period of the home and the neighborhood.

Lesson: You may not be able to go to such great lengths. But if you are going to renovate, think “how can I complement this home’s history, but add something new.”

3) Think about Space. The architects and designers opened up the flow of the home with a great room and created a nice flow between the kitchen and the living room. This is not easy to do, but it is worth it.

Lesson: With too many older homes, the small rooms make you feel cut off from the rest of the home.

4) Detail, Detail, Detail. People notice when you cut corners. Robin and Russell did customized cabinetry, 24” designer Italian tile and Silestone Quartz Countertops.

Lesson: People are looking to see that you replaced old hardware, fixtures and really thought through what you wanted to do before you started.

5) Don’t forget to Permit. Robin and Russell got every permit needed, from electrical to structural, which means the buyer of this home can feel safe in the work that was done right.

Lesson: So many people do extensive work without getting the city permits required. That can be dangerous and could cause problems for the buyer later on when it is their turn to sell. It can also slow down the purchase.

If you’d like to see this house or talk about your home purchase, call me at 602-456-9388. I’m happy to share.

This Sunday agents for 62 homes are coordinating for massive day of open houses.

Leif Swanson and I are representing a home on the tour 1821 E. Rose Lane (3br/3ba at $398,000). See more about them here. The home will show from 1-5pm.

Please come out and make a day of it.

Below is the map for all of the homes on the tour. And check out this PDF file, Sunday 19th Open Houses, for a list of all 62 homes.

Please spread the word!

Most economists will tell you that the market is driven by how people feel about the market. And how they feel about the market is directly impacted by what they hear in the news.

This is as true in the stock market as it is in the housing market.

So, it is no wonder that people (even those with stable jobs and some savings) are fearful of  buying a new home right now. All we hear is how bad it is and we hear speculation of a double dip, despite the presence of some positive economic news (and the lowest prices and interest rates in eons). For instance, there are more sales of homes right now than there have been since most of 2006, all of 2007 and 2008 and half of 2009. The market is robust.

Now, I’m not going to spin a yarn trying to convince you that the economy is peaches and cream. But there are indicators that the economy is going in the right direction. Jobless claims were down and some businesses are reporting profits or are planning for when they will hire again.

Interestingly enough, at the same time, Americans are sitting on a lot of cash. The US Dept. of Commerce reports that Americans have a 6% savings rate, up from about 1% in 2004.

While it is sad that so many have lost homes, buyers should keep in mind that Arizona has some of the cheapest housing in the country. Prices are hovering just above 2009 levels.

All of this means that we have pent-up demand which is just waiting for some good economic news to spring forward. I won’t pretend that all will be sun and roses, but once you hear a few tidbits of good economic news on the radio, watch as those folks who are sitting on their cash to enter the market again.

I never advocate for trying to time the housing market like the stock market. You should buy or sell based on need and life choices. However, if you are nearly ready to get in to the market, don’t underestimate the benefit of getting in right at the moment before that psychology starts to shift.

For those of you buying, listen to the radio. You will hear the same news that others do. We have the lowest interest rates in 40 years and the lowest prices in the nation. The key point to buy will be before that psychological turn-around.

For those of you who are selling homes, be prepared for buyers to bid low until a few months in to a turn-around.

If you want to get a better idea of what is out there, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

“As a map maker, I can have more of an impact on an election than a campaign. More of an impact than a candidate. When I as a mapmaker have more of an impact on an election than voters, the system is out of whack.”
–Consultant David Winston who drew House districts for the GOP after the 1990 U.S. Census.

You’ve heard me go on about our problems with redistricting. For background check out these articles form last year explaining the background on Arizona redistricting: here and here.

Well, now is your chance to help us fix the most crucial problem facing Arizona today. You can become one of our 5 redistricting commissioners.

The 5 commissioners (2 Republicans, 2 Democrats and 1 Independent who will be the chairman), will be chosen beginning in January to oversee the drawing of our legislative and congressional lines. As you can see from the quote above, this is an incredibly influential and important job. You could choose to maintain Arizona’s dysfunctional system of elections, or you could the agent of reform that will affect Arizona for the next generation.

In order to be a commissioner you:

• must have been registered with the same political party for at least the last three years.
• cannot have been a candidate for public office within the last three years.
• cannot have been elected or appointed to public office within the last three years.
• cannot have served as an offer of a political party, or served as a registered lobbyist or as an offer of a candidate’s campaign committee for the last three years.

You can apply  by going to www.arizona-redistricting-nominations.com. Applications are easy to fill out and are due by October 15th at 5pm.

Watch for more information from me on this issue. But for now, I cannot overstate the importance of this process. the district lines that we draw will determine whether Arizona will move forward, or miss its potential altogether.

<begin crowing>

I love when the Wall Street Journal backs me up.

Over the last 9 months there as been a lot of talk about a flood of foreclosed homes that is going to drive prices down.

My position has been that this is not likely because (1) banks are doing marginally better at preventing foreclosures, but more than that, (2) the banks know that they would undercut their own prices if they just flooded the market with homes.

So, they are not in a hurry. They will sell the houses at a pace that does not undermine the prices they can get for the homes.

That is not great for neighborhoods where houses sit empty, but it is good for the market.

And it means that there is not likely to be a second tidal wave of foreclosures.

<end crowing, back to your regularly scheduled program>

So, about two months ago I joined the Valley of the Sun Kiwanis club, the oldest one in Phoenix.

Yep. It was a surprise to me, too.

I did not announce it during the campaign because I thought that would seem a little like I was joining because of the campaign.

In any case, I never saw myself as the kind that would join the Rotary/Kiwanis/Lions kind of groups.

There was something a little too “Fred Flintstone and the Water Buffaloes” about it for me. Plus, I never got the sense that they did a whole lot these days, being that they all seemed to be a hold over from 1950’s Americana.

But my friends Sid Rosen and Bryce Johnson (the guys who collaborated on the geothermal heated and cooled house in CenPho) took me to one of their bi-weekly lunches a few months ago and it started my little pea brain a-turnin’.

Remember the book from 1995 called Bowling Alone? The premise was that Americans are joining less and doing more isolating activities, such as watching TV or playing on the computer. The generation that followed all of the folks who had joined these groups en masse saw these groups as passe, or part of the power structure (to be avoided). The generation after that generation (my generation) could not be bothered to figure out what all the fuss was about.

The result, according to the author, could be that our important social fabric could be torn and we would lose the benefit of people giving back to their communities, etc., etc.

Now, to be fair, and as a nod to my girlfriend, I should tell you that I never read the book. But I was in grad school at the time and as long as I got the premise and some supporting facts, I was good to go. (Hey, I had to read over 1,000 pages per week for school. That’s the best I could do.)

Point is, there was a lot of fear about the fate of America’s future as a society that had previously worked together and played together.

Fast forward through the eras of bulletin boards, AOL and blogs to where we are now: The Land of Facebook and Twitter.

Everybody is joining. Everybody feels like they are part of a community. We “like” things our friends say. We “share” videos. We invite each other to things that most of our invitees will ignore.

Its as if the tendency to join things skipped a generation. Younger people are joining things, but not in the way they would have 60 years ago. It is quick and easy to join now. Probably too quick and easy.

It is a little superficial in a way; a little hollow. We are getting credit for being part of a community without doing as much leg work. The result is that we may not be getting as much done as we think we are. I think as time goes on, people will look for more.

So, I think we are going to come full circle. People will start joining again in person, but it will look a little different. I think that the social networking will have its own life, but it will do a better job of supporting the live activities that give people a sense of belonging and accomplishment.

I don’t think this is just me, either, by the way. I’ve spoken to a number of people my age and younger who are looking at these groups all over again. There is a nexus between social networking and live social service organizations and I’m hearing people talk about it.

So, that is what I want to explore. That is why I joined.

I joined this Kiwanis, in particular, because it is downtown. I have been active here ever since I moved to Phoenix in 1998 and this is where it counts. It seems to make sense along with the other things I do in this neck of the woods, too.

I look forward to see this group grow in the future. I’ve already seen one new member since I joined.

Who knows. Could be a trend. But I refuse to wear a water buffalo hat.