The Arizona Republic this weekend finally admitted what we in the industry have known for a while: “Foreclosure homes are selling fast in the Valley as investors jump at the low prices, and experts don’t think the area’s shadow inventory will suppress prices further.” See the full article here.

They start out the article as they have so many before with talk of this “shadow inventory”, or the number of homes that are foreclosed (but not on the market) or that may foreclose soon because folks are late on their payments.

In previous stories they have used this looming menace to tell you to hide your kids, build a fall out shelter and stock up on duct tape. Over the past six months I’ve told you several things, most importantly the following: 1) banks won’t let the houses out faster than the market can absorb them, in order to protect prices, 2) the number of foreclosures have gone down steadily over the past 6 months and 3) foreclosed homes are selling faster every month.

Finally, they are telling us what I’ve been saying: those homes are selling quickly and they are gaining speed. In addressing why the “shadow inventory” of 92,000 homes is not a serious problem, they actually put it in to context this time:

“That’s because the rate of sales is as important as the raw number of homes. If sales are brisk, the homes are snapped up quickly, meaning they won’t lead to lower prices.”

They say that 92,000 foreclosed homes is 12 months worth of sales. That is about 7,600 sales per month. That is about right. And given the increasing speed at which they are selling, I think that is a little long.

Consider also that the “shadow inventory” in Phoenix is lower than in the suburbs, where all the explosive building 5 years ago made a housing glut. I’m seeing bidding wars over houses that are going under contract in weeks, not months.

Well, its great to see the shift. Watch now as the media shifts from the “woe is us” tone to the “signs of recovery” tone over the next year.

Not to ramble too much, but there is a lot to be said for trying to diversify our economy here in Arizona so this does not happen again. We were on the right road with renewable energy, but then it kinda just petered out! Check out this interesting article on the issue of economic diversification.

Average Days on Market Going Down!

You’ve seen my charts, graphs and data on this blog over the past six months as I make the case that either (1) homes actually are going up in price or that (2) the local news media has its head stuck up some, er …., shall we say, “dark cave” when it comes to predicting the way the market is going.

So, here is a bit of anecdotal evidence to further the case.

About three weeks ago a couple clients of mine and I started narrowing down the list of houses that they wanted to see when they came to town last week. We started with a list of over 20 properties that were “favorites”. This was the short list of properties that we might want to see.

By the time they got here, half of those had accepted offers. Further, during the time that we were looking at what was left another one went under contract. Luckily we found the perfect property for them anyway. And what happened? There were multiple offers on the property.

I am constantly amazed at how quickly these properties are going as I show people around Central Phoenix. If I were to isolate the average “days on market” for properties in Central Phoenix, versus the rest of the city (not even the rest of the valley), I’m confident that they would be on the market for 20% to 30% less time than anywhere else.

Oh, but there’s that data again.

Several things are happening to make this trend (gleaned from anecdotal conversations with clients):

1) The economy is getting better. Yes, it is slow, but it is enough that those who have jobs are feeling more comfortable about making home buying decisions.

2) Gas prices. As gas prices go up, more people are looking in CenPho. I hear it from my clients all the time.

3) People are looking around and seeing that houses are going more quickly, so they are making decisions more quickly themselves.

If you have been putting this decision off for a while, call me at 602-456-9388 before the lower inventory results in higher prices.

Thanks again to Leonardo Ramirez with Universal Furnishings & Offerings and Sherman Bush & Joseph Paul with BoomBoom LaRue.

I think everybody tried on a wig but me and the ladies from Carte Blanche Gourmet Tacos also dropped by with some tasty treats.

For the May Get Your PHX, we are diving deep in to new territory and lots of people are getting in the game to build a huge community event supporting Free Arts of Arizona and with a little help fromThe Bikini Lounge.

Indie ArtHouse is a brand new artist collective opening on Grand Avenue and 15th Ave. The idea behind Indie ArtHouse is to bring a new project to Grand Avenue that gives the broadest array of artists possible the opportunity to be seen, while also serving as a source of supplies and inspiration.  The creative co-op and space will be stocked with handmade art, clothing, up-cycle crafts, vintage works and supplies. There will be monthly community featured artists and an array of unique gifts.

“We all got together and decided we wanted to start a new project on Grand Ave,” says director Joseph Cuevas. “We believe in the arts community of Phoenix and we believe in the future of Grand Ave. So we’re excited to be a part of it. Most of all we’re looking forward to growing with this great community.”

Indie Arthouse members include Star DeLuna, Brian Harrison, Sticker Club Girl, Michelle Ponce, Ethan Brown, Tina McReynolds, Joseph Cuevas, Damian Jim, RunzwithScissors, Hristi Stoilcheva, Kristi Kuhl and Alyssa Shevlin.

Come meet the artists in person and buy something because Indie Arthouse is giving a 10% discount for anybody who buys at the May Get Your PHX.

The Bikini Lounge is offering specials for anybody who comes to this Get Your PHX and then drops by afterwards with our special token (because what would artists do if they couldn’t have easy access to drinks?) Special will run from 5:30 to 7:30 and only for those with a special Get Your PHX card.

We are also having a silent auction to benefit Free Arts of Arizona, the organization that we support every time we land in a gallery. So, please bring your auction paddle and be ready to deal!

Keep an eye on our Facebook Fan Page for updates. As you know, there are always surprises.

May Get Your PHX
Thursday, May 19th from 5:30 to 8:30.
1504 Grand AvePhoenix, AZ 85007  Map here

Please RSVP to me via email or through Facebook so I can get an accurate count.

Valley of the Sun Kiwanis ClubPress Release—Kiwanis Family Day at Chase Field The Valley of the Sun Kiwanis Club (established in 1947), one of the oldest and most well-respected service clubs in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, will be hosting its annual fundraiser at Chase Field on November 6, 2011.

“Kiwanis Family Day at Chase Field” will benefit Kiwanis charities focusing on children and will provide on-the-field baseball experiences, entertainment, and educational activities for the entire family, and a “Run Drugs Out of Town” run around the ballpark.  The event will also mark the 10th Anniversary of the 2001 World Series victory over the New York Yankees.

The details for the event are as follows:

DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2011

TIME: NOON – 6:00 P.M.

LOCATION: CHASE FIELD (DOWNTOWN PHOENIX, ARIZONA)

ACTIVITIES: The activities planned for the event include:

• Live “major league” batting practice

• Baseball skills clinics for children ages 5-16 (batting, fielding, pitching, catching, and baserunning)

• Sponsor recognition, video displays, and live batting practice shown on giant stadium video screen

• Chase Field “behind the scenes” tours

• “Run Drugs Out of Town” Run

• Live music

• Kids Fun Zone

• Contests and games

• Tribute to 2001 World Series Champion Arizona Diamondbacks

• Vendor/sponsor displays and demonstrations

• Silent Auction

• “Special guest” appearances

For further information, please contact Michael Rubin:  602-285-5008 or michael.rubin@mwmf.com

On November 6th, 2011 the Valley of the Sun Kiwanis, one of the oldest and most well-respected service clubs in the Phoenix Metro area will be hosting its annual fundraiser at Chase Field.

The “Kiwanis Family Day at Chase Field” will benefit Kiwanis charities focussing on children and will provide on-the-field baseball experiences, entertainment and educational activities for the entire family. You will be able to take batting practice with your mug up on the big screen, there will be baseball clinics for children and behind the scenes tours.

I know that I’m a total broken record, but here is a quick point that I want to make. Actually my broker at John Hall & Associates shared this with me.

In the graph below you see the sales per month over the last couple months versus last year. The labels are clear. Last year with the subsides (federal tax credit) our sales per month were lower than they are today with no subsidy.

Need I say more?

Buy in Phoenix! Buy short sales in Phoenix! Buy foreclosures in Phoenix! Call me at 602-456-9388.

Here’s a hoot. Read these two articles and you will see why so many people are confused about the market right now.

The Phoenix Business Journal from Tuesday, April 19th:

This article is telling us that home prices have dropped again. “The median sales price for existing homes in the Phoenix area was down to $125,000 in March, according to new Arizona State University numbers.”

“ASU economist and real estate professor Jay Butler reports March’s existing home price was down from $127,500 in February and $142,500 in March 2010.”

The Arizona Republic from Tuesday, April 19th:

This article is telling us that home prices have remained stable. “The median price of resales in metro Phoenix has held steady at $115,000 since December.”

Luckily both articles tell us that the number of foreclosures are down

Business Journal: “There were 4,100 foreclosures this March compared to 4,400 a year ago.”

Arizona Republic: “Although foreclosures continue to drive the market, signs indicate those could soon start to decline.”

What do we take from this? I’d say you need to buy based on your needs, not on thinking of the real estate market like a stock market. We are still at all-time low prices, but they are climbing. We are still at all-time low interest rates, but they are climbing.

Let me know if I can help. 602-456-9388

I’m helping my mom with the Sierra Vista Relay for Life.

Not because mother’s day is coming up. Just because I’m a good son.

Or maybe its all about scoring points toward that next batch of clam spagetti that my mom makes so well. I dunno. You decide.

Here’s the pitch:

What:  Join the American Cancer Society’s 2011 Relay for Life event on Friday, May 6 in Sierra Vista at Veteran’s Memorial Park. Take this opportunity to get a vacation down in God’s country: the Huachuca Mountains, Bisbee and Historic Tombstone.

Why: My mom’s mother died in 1990 at the age of 66 -my mother’s age now- of lung cancer. So, naturally, a search for a cure is important to my mom and to me.

More: If you are not familiar with the American Cancer Society Relay For Life event, it is to celebrate the lives of people who have battled cancer, remember loved ones lost, and fight back against the disease.  At the relay, teams and individuals walk or run around a designated path.  Because cancer never sleeps, relays are overnight events up to 24 hours in length.

One of the most moving parts of the event is the Luminaria Ceremony.  As the sun sets and darkness falls, the night is brightened by the glow of luminaria bags, each bearing the name of someone who has battled cancer.

How: If you would like to join this event and walk registration is $10.00 starting at 6:00 PM.  If you can’t join us, please consider a donation at this link select “Donate” at the top of the “Relay for Life Sierra Vista Home Page,” on the next page select “Donate to Participant” enter my mother’s name, Donna Clark, select “find” when her record appears select “Donate Now” then follow directions.  Checks made out to the American Cancer Society Relay for Life can be sent to me at P.O. Box 1453, Hereford, AZ 85615

Would you like to honor or remember someone with a luminaria during the Relay For Life Luminaria Ceremony?  Luminarias can be purchased at the entry table or on line at this link please select  “Luminaria” on the “Relay for Life Sierra Vista Home Page” type in “Donna Clark” and select the find button, highlight “Donate Now” then follow directions.

Research is expensive as is everything these days, but without it a cure will not be found.  It is sad but we must face this disease can touch anyone of us or our families.  The smallest donation is so very appreciated.  Please consider joining the fight.

Of course, I’ve told her that she needs to sell her famous bread pudding again, which she has in the past sold for $100 per dish on behalf of the Cancer Society. Eat the pudding and then walk around the track all night to get the calories off!

Thanks for your consideration. For questions email Donna Clark, clarkwd at earthlink.net

I’ve been saying for months that the number of foreclosures has been going down. Yet the Arizona Republic would continue to print misleadingly false news.

Well, they have finally reported what is really happening. In this article they finally say that the notices of trustee sales (notices of foreclosures) is going down.

Background: When somebody stops making payments on their house, they get a notice of foreclosure. If they don’t pay up, they are foreclosed on and they go to a trustee sale on the courthouse steps. If nobody buys the property at auction, the bank puts it on the market as a foreclosed property.

So, see in this chart that the number of foreclosure notices has been going down since September of last year, quite dramatically!

In case you are thinking, “Well the foreclosures go down because more people are short selling instead.” Nope. First, you get a trustee notice before you short sell, so this informs that, too.

Second, see in this chart that the number of foreclosures has been going down and the number of normal sales is going up. This is because, in part, people are avoiding foreclosure after they get their notices. It is also because there is an increased number of renovated properties on the market. These sell as regular sales.

So there, Arizona Republic!

What does this mean? Prices will start moving upward during this summer buying season. Let’s hope interest rates don’t go up, as well!

Thanks again to Modified Director Kim Larkin and Associate Director Adam Murray for hosting our March Get Your PHX. Thanks also to David Lindsley from Valley Pizza Downtown for supplying the nosh. It was a pleasure to support this Downtown Anchor establishment as they transitioned to a new direction.

April is about furniture, frills and folic. We are extending our exploration of 16th St. and reaching out a little beyond the traditional downtown.
This month is about diversity, eclecticism and just being absolutely over the top with Universal Furnishings & Offerings and BoomBoom LaRue.
Why two hosts? Why not? They are next door neighbors and they are both an absolute hoot. Oh, and this month is UFO’s 2nd anniversary, or as owner Leonardo Ramirez likes to say, his “3rd Orbit Celebration.”

UFO is not a used furniture store. This is an interactive space, with an art gallery, a classroom and 4,000 square feet of showroom. We have lots of surprises coming (watch Facebook for announcements), but we can tell you that you will get a chance to learn from the artisans who do everything from make accessories to reupholster furniture.

UFO is a place where people and furniture can have a rebirth in purpose, style and attitude. Leonardo calls it “recycle-tude.”

Now, BoomBoom. What can we say? The partnership for this Get Your PHX means you can expect a huge blow-out of fun and surprises.
If you think “drag dresses” when you think of BoomBoom, you will be as keen to learn as I was that they do more than that. Sherman Bush and Joseph Paul of BoomBoom enlightened me as to why they have grown from a little booth in the old antique shop at McDowell and 7th to over 2,500 square feet of dresses, costumes, accessories and men’s clothes.

Sherman tells me that they provide unique items to the drag community, but also men, women, art students, actors and for a whole array of eclectic uses.

What made them more than a costume shop –and allowed them to grow in a recession– is how they guarantee uniqueness.

Case in point, Sherman pointed to a costume jewelry case in the store and told me, “If anybody buys a piece of jewelry from that case (and many clothing items, too), we guarantee not to sell an identical piece for at least 4 year.”

So, no more showing up to cocktail parties only to be embarrassed that I’m wearing the same choker as Sheriff Joe Arpaio!

Keep an eye on our Facebook Fan Page for updates. As you know, there are always surprises.

April Get Your PHX
Thursday, April 21st from 5:30 to 8:30.
3602 and 3606 N 16th St
Phoenix, 85006 Map here

Please RSVP to me via email or through Facebook so I can get an accurate count.

The goal of Get Your PHX is to show up, en masse, to support those who pioneer new restaurants, stores, bars and event spaces. We want to provide them a boost as they put their sweat, tears and wealth on the line to make life great downtown. Plus, we want to provide a chance for you to meet others like you, who want to get the most out of Phoenix.