OK, folks. You’ve seen my critique recently of the Arizona Republic’s negative Nancy routine around real estate. Only recently have they admitted that the sky is not about to collapse on us like a giant chalupa.

So, the Biz Journal is starting to change its tune, too. A recent Phoenix Business Journal blog discussed the idea that the Phoenix real estate market is starting to stage a comeback.

But unlike a late inning rally, this comeback will take years before things return to normal with some experts saying 2013 or even 2014. So says Michael Orr of my favorite real estate stats table, The Cromford Report.

So what does this mean for you? Well, if you have the money, this is the time to pounce on available real estate. Many experts agree that the worst is behind us in terms of low housing prices and that they can only increase.

Scott Golba, a local real estate manager tells us that “This is not the time to go out and buy one home. It’s time to buy two or three homes.”

You got that emphasis, right? Buy two or more!

This will be a two-fold benefit for investors, as so many people are unable to put down the necessary payment to buy a house and instead opt to rent. This is positive cash-flow into a buyer’s pocket that can easily pay for a majority, if not more, than the cost of the home over a period of time.

So, give me a call and I can answer all of your questions regarding the housing market in Phoenix. I can help you find the home of your dreams or the home that meets your investment plans. 602.456.9388

Hey, all.

You may recall that my clients Seth and Ben are selling their 1,274 sqft. home with the 3.6kW of solar panels and lots of energy saving goodies. See here.

Well, the price has just dropped! You will want to see this. Now at $139,000.

It is an amazing house. The solar panels mean that you pay about $50 per month (average) for APS power and about $50 per month for the lease on the solar panels.

Solar City, the company that leased the panels to them two years ago covers them with a warranty and will fix them if anything goes wrong for the life of the lease (now 13 years).

Please let me know if you’d like to see this house. 602-456-9388

It is perfect as a rental near ASU, too!

If you are new to this blog you may not know that I am a HUGE fan of my condo complex. This property was built in the 1950s, was an apartment building until 2004, when it “went condo”. It is a great example mid-century modern architecture and the units are big –especially for the price.

This 2br/1.75 bath, 1,106 sqft unit is going for $42,000. Less than the price of many cars these days!

So, it stands to reason that I get excited about the idea of helping owner-occupants purchase these incredible units. I don’t represent this seller, but I can help you grab this unit. Note: they go pretty quickly!

Give me a call at 602-456-9388.

If you want a little history, check out this blog post about the renovation of the house that also sits on the property.

Here are some more photos.

I know what you are thinking: “What do the Australians think of the influence of money on the American political system?”

Okay, maybe you were not thinking that. But the folks at the Victorian Labor Party were asking the question when they asked me to write a multi-part series on the topic. Here is part one.  My article is on page 14, but you might find this magazine an interesting glimpse into campaigns and elections in this lovely paradise of a country.

I’m a particular fan of their list of important political movies to see, called “Showbiz for Ugly People.”

You do know that politics is supposed to be showbiz for ugly people, right? It explains so much.

Thanks again to Virginia Senior and her crew at Urban Beans.  There were over 60 people at our June event, all enjoying wines and nibbles in a refined wine pairing experience. Special thanks to Lisa Reinhardt of The Wei of Chocolate who provided her exquisite creations for the tasting. I’m still working my wei through an assortment of chocolates.

Get it, “wei!” You, know, like, wei. Oh, I crack me up! No? Alright, never mind.

Back to the business at hand: more epicurean luxuries in July!

I was so intrigued by the idea of our wine pairing last month, that I decided that it was in order to try something really special: a professional tour through the world of Greco/Italian cuisine, with Andy Pappas, of La Piccola Cucina as your personal guide.

If you’ve never met Andy, you know this guy’s the real deal. Andy is a former New Yorker (he owned another La Piccola Cucina in Manhattan). He and his wife, Debbie, have literally travelled the world picking up recipes for you to try and they deliver the real deal when it comes to southern European cuisine. The only thing that is missing is the haute cuisine snobbery.

I was at LPC a couple months ago with a client, celebrating a home purchase, when Andy and I got in to a conversation about how to eat and the logic behind courses. Why are there a certain number of courses? Why antipasta before the meal? Do you know? Don’t ask me!

Andy, of course, knows.

Enter “The Gallantry of the Table.” That was the name of a book written in the 15th century that laid out in great detail the logic behind eating.

Did you know, for instance, that if you eat meat before your first course, you run the risk of “festering” the meet in your stomach, resulting in certain unmentionable social fax pas? Not a pretty picture, I know. But epicureans 500 years ago laid out in clear detail what you need to do to get the most out of a refined dining experience.

Andy is our guide for one night. You will learn more about food at the next Get Your PHX than you’ve learned in the last 10 years combined.

Andy is going to present a mini, 5-course meal with wine; during which you will come to learn about the theories and practice behind greco/roman cuisine. He will help you experience the why’s and how’s of this ancient cooking tradition.

Now, La Piccola Cucina is not a big place and this is a very exclusive engagement. We are going to have to limit this event to the first 30 participants. (However, who knows, if we get enough interest, we might be able to do this in two engagements. Stay tuned.)

This event is going to cost $15 per person and will include the instructional 5-course meal and Andy’s choice of fine wine. In order to reserve your space, you need to call La Piccola Cucina directly at 602-358-7415 by July 20th. You can pay over the phone or at the door. Please also RSVP to me or on the fan page so I have an accurate count.

Keep an eye on our Facebook Fan Page for updates. As you know, there are always surprises.

July Get Your PHX
Thursday, July 21st from 5:30 to 8:30.
2241 N. 7th Street
Phoenix, AZ 85006 Map here

Admit it, you’ve missed my usual fun-lovin’ and humorous market analysis over the last month. “What will I do with my time without Ken’s market analysis now that Modern Family is on summer break?”, you say.

My apologies. It’s been a nutty month. Between closing properties, showing new ones and the Independent Redistricting Commission, I’ve been running around like a blue-arsed fly (ask your Australian friends).

But, Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title Company delivers with a really handy June month-in-review.

Executive Summary: “If you are still waiting for that mythical second wave of foreclosures, you are more likely to see Snookie settle down in a commune of vegetarian, celibate, palm readers before that will happen.”

Market Headlines

·         Supply continues to fall, though rather more slowly in the ranges between $200,000 and $800,000.

·         Demand very strong below $200,000 but showing seasonal weakness above $200,000.

·         Average sales price per sq. ft. is stable below $300,000 and increasing above $300,000.

·         A change in the sales mix could adversely affect overall market average prices and medians.

·         Foreclosure activity declining and active REO inventory is at the lowest level for several years.

Homes under $100,000

·         Demand remains strong while supply is still declining. Prices now stable for 7 months.

·         Demand normally falls off during the summer but the demand in this price range is dominated by intense buying by investors who are only slightly affected by the seasons.

·         Active listings are now 7.8% below this time last year.

·         This supply continues to gradually shift away from REOs (down 15.7% in the last month) towards short sales and pre-foreclosures.

Homes Between $100,000 and $200,000

·         Supply down and demand fading slightly. Pricing remains very stable.

·         Having peaked in October, supply has fallen another 6.8% in the past month and is down 23.4% when compared with March.

·         Demand has faded a little, but this is in line with normal seasonal patterns.

·         REOs dropped to 38% of monthly sales while normal listings also fell to 38%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures increased from 21% to 24% of sales.

Homes Between $200,000 and $400,000

·         Buying interest falters a little although supply continues to decline. Pricing remains very stable.

·         The supply of single family homes dropped by another 4.1% between May 26 and June 26, and is now down 17.0% over the last three months and 29.2% over the last year.

·         Over the last month REO supply actually rose by 2.4% reversing an 8 month trend, while short sales and pre-foreclosures fell by 3.0% and normal listings fell 5.5%.

Homes Between $400,000 and $800,000

·         Supply falling but demand continues to weaken. Nevertheless sales prices remain on an upward trend.

·         Single family homes between $400,000 and $800,000 have experienced a 6.4% fall in active listings in the last month.

·         The sales volume strengthened slightly in June, with monthly sales up 7.0%.

·         REO supply didn’t change during June at 84 homes, but this is down 10.6% over the last 3 months.

Homes over $800,000

·         Demand weakens for the summer months but supply is down again. Sales prices continue to climb.

·         We see the first sign of the spring season turning to summer as pending sales start to fade.

·         The good news is that the supply of homes above $800,000 fell 8.5% in one month, 18.9% over three months and 29.2% since June 2010.

·         Active REOs rose 18.4% from 38 to 45 over the last month but these represent only 2.9% of total active listings.

In case you’ve not heard by now, this week is Independent’s Week. That means you can get 20% off at over 189 locally owned businesses in Arizona. That’s June 27th through July 4th, ya’ll.

Just get your Golden Ticket at the LFA website, print it and take it in to your favorite local shops to save big.

Thank Local First Arizona for organizing this very necessary event.

For me, it all comes down to this important quote. “Studies have shown that for every $100 spent in a locally owned business, roughly $42 remains right here in Arizona, while for the same $100 spent in a national chain store, only $13 remains here.”

Now, that’s a money quote.

I’m proud that I am an agent with John Hall & Associates, a local Arizona broker. I’m also proud to give a contribution to the local charity of your choice if you refer a client to me and that client closes on a purchase or sale of a home.

We support our economy and the local Arizona real estate market when we buy local!

It costs upwards of $30,000 to put solar panels on your house.

Or, you can just buy a house with solar panels on it already and save gobs on your electric bill.

This 3br/2ba home, for sale at only $149,000 has 3.6 kW of solar panels on the roof. What does this mean? It means that the owners, Ben and Seth, pay less than $100 per month for electricity –even in the summer.

They have a lease for the panels from Solar City, which were installed in 2009. That means that about $50 per month goes to pay the lease and “much less than” $50 per month, according to Seth, goes to pay the connection fees that APS requires for back-up power. (You know, for the 5 days that its cloudy in AZ.) See the listing for more details.

So, as the cost of electricity goes up for everybody else at over 6% per year, yours will probably increase at somewhere closer to 2%.

It also means that they are constantly off-setting CO2 emissions, just by being there. Since being installed in May of 2009, these panels have generated 13,308.00 kWh, or $2,395 worth of electricity. Their system has offset 17,048 lbs of CO2, or the equivalent of 8.1 mature trees.

Better still, this is a really beautiful home in Tempe, close to freeway access and shopping.

Ben and Seth did a wonderful job on the property, with water-saving desert landscaping, energy efficient windows, sky lighting via energy efficient solar tubes, a new kitchen and tile throughout.

This house presents an interesting example of a trend in Arizona. Many homes now have had solar panels installed through up-front purchase or a lease programs. Many of these are on the market –but a large percentage are $1 million+ homes!

This solar home is well within reach for the average buyer. And that means that the buyer, benefits directly and financially from whatever the seller installed. In some cases, the buyer takes on the lease for the solar panels, so be certain to talk with your lender about that. In those cases, the lease costs are relatively low, as are the electric payments. In this case, the buyer is taking on a lease for about $50 per month, but the total cost of electricity is lower than the average home, even when you combine the APS payments and the solar panel lease.

By installing solar tubes in the kitchen and the bathrooms, they also cut down on the amount of electricity needed to heat and cool the home.

This property is worth a look. It is bright, neat, well presented, in a great neighborhood and, in a way, pays for itself with the sun’s energy!

Learn more by clicking the pictures, clicking here or calling me at 602-456-9388.

What’s the opposite of a canary in a coal mine?

I’m looking for that phrase that means indicator of good things to come.

Oh, I know: property appraiser.

At least for now, that is.

I saw the following quote in an appraisal that my client got for her new home purchase yesterday –a home that appraised at $35,000 above sales price.

“Over the past year the sales prices in this area have fluctuated. The prices have increased since a year ago and are now starting to stabilize. The data collected reflects homes in the subject’s market area that are considered comparable to the subject in design, size, age, and quality. It appears the market is stabilizing in this market area and the absorption rate is declining.”

OK. So, hurray, right? My client has $35,000 of instant equity. I don’t think she could have bought at a better time.

But, let me put this in to context for you.

1 year ago –We agents were seeing data that indicated that home prices (especially in Central Phoenix areas) were stabilizing. The press stuck to the chicken little narrative, of course.

9 months ago –Appraisers were consistently coming in low on their appraisals, by wide margins, even though buyers and sellers were valuing property higher. This was great for some of my buyers, as I could then get the seller (usually the bank) to drop the price for us. This was a pain for sellers, of course. It also seemed terribly unfair for sellers of historic homes. See, as of about 2008 appraisers are assigned to appraisal jobs from a blind pool, and we often got appraiser from the suburbs who did not know the first thing about historic homes and completely undervalued them.

4 months ago –We were seeing much more evidence that the market had turned, with fewer foreclosures and multiple offers, but the appraisals were still coming in low. I think the appraisers were reading the Arizona Republic.

Today — Appraisals are coming in on the nose (more so in Central Phoenix real estate areas). And, like the one above, they are actually recognizing the shifts toward recovery. I also started noticing when I did comparable analyses for people that the “sold” prices were showing up as higher than the listing prices.

So, my client got the absolute sweet spot for buying this house: the prices are going up, but not everybody sees that, so she could get a great deal. Then, the appraisal comes in over asking price so the bank is happy to lend money and my client has built-in equity.

Does this mean that appraisers are going to drive a price spike? Not likely. See the problem during the bubble years was that appraisers were told with a wink an a nod what market value the buyer needed to close the deal. (I was not an agent then.) They can’t do that now because you will never know who your appraiser is going to be.

Anyway, this is a good omen. I’m sure it is more applicable to historic homes and CenPho than the burbs, but this is a milestone in my book.

The goal of Get Your PHX is to show up, en masse, to support those who pioneer new restaurants, stores, bars and event spaces. We want to provide them a boost as they put their sweat, tears and wealth on the line to make life great downtown. Plus, we want to provide a chance for you to meet others like you, who want to get the most out of Phoenix.

Thanks again to everybody at the Indie ArtHouse. Joseph and the gang showed us a great time. Thanks also to The Bikini Lounge for offering drink specials and thanks to food truck Hey Joe for providing tasty comestibles. We raised a little money to benefit Free Arts of Arizona, and bought some great local original art.

I’m particularly excited about the June Get Your PHX because I’ve been wanting to do a wine pairing for a looooong time. Thanks to Virginia Senior over at Urban Beans, we will have special presentation from a professional wine sommelier who will guide us in how to pair wines with different types of food. Watch for an announcement soon about who our celebrity sommelier will be.

How better to start the summer than by refining your knowledge of which wine to pair with which meat, cheese, chocolate or desert?

With this knowledge you can impress your friends at the next 4th of July back yard barbeque: “No, really I think these Hebrew National Hot dogs would be best with an Albert Mann, cremant d’Alsace, brut.”

To round out my wine pairing dream team, Lisa Reinhardt of The Wei of Chocolate will provide the chocolate for the wine pairing. Have you ever had their citrus infused dark chocolate? I can’t wait to try this out! This is going to be a real treat.

Virginia at Urban Beans is completing a major expansion. She has a liquor license now, so she is serving all new meals: Sunday brunch with her famous French toast from 9am to 1pm are $15.95 and include an entree, scones, coffee and a cocktail. She is also doing special 5-course dinners, coming soon and she is expanding her desert menu.

Everything she is doing is based on a Eurocafe model of a seamless integration of coffee, food and wine.

Here’s the best part: the wine pairing is regularly a $15 deal and you are going to get it for FREE! So, join us, won’t you?

Keep an eye on our Facebook Fan Page for updates. As you know, there are always surprises.

June Get Your PHX
Thursday, June 23rd from 5:30 to 8:30.
3508 N. 7th StreetPhoenix, AZ 85014  Map here
Please RSVP to me via email or through Facebook so I can get an accurate count.