Nobody has any idea. But I predict that, while it won’t be as dramatic as our last, it may go on for a while.

Here’s the analysis:

After the presidential elections in November, regardless of the winner,  prices will continue to move upward. How do I know this? And why does this sound like a weather report prediction?

It’s because the coming change in home-buying patterns is showing evidence of a refreshing rain moving our way. After a six-year long summer of dry, cloudless skies, we’re beginning to smell the change in the air. A break from the scorching heat is a ‘comin.

To say it without the weather analogy, the increase in buying will continue, in part because a lot of companies are holding off on major projects and hiring until after the elections’ fallout. However, that upswing won’t be dramatic because our national debt and energy prices will continue to be a drag on our economy.

In regards to prices, we don’t see where new inventory in our Phoenix market will come from, especially in CenPho. Tight inventory means higher prices.

Mark Zandy, one of the nation’s preeminent housing analysts was on the Diane Rems Show yesterday morning talking about prices and how they are continuing to move upward as distressed properties are going away.

In Phoenix house prices have gone up 30% from last year. Yes 30%.

Take a look at the graph below, showing the Monthly Average Sales Price Per Square Foot. You can’t see the wind, but you can tell how and where it’s moving by watching the things it affects.

This chart shows a snapshot of four years worth of housing prices on the move. The brown line on top, the one with the greatest upward spiking is 2012.

My expert conclusion?

The heat is unbearable and so many people are walking around with sunburned proof of the long, hot summer. If you’re thinking of buying, make your move and buy now.

I want to say this very clearly: while prices will be going up for the foreseeable future, they won’t return to 2007 levels for years. So, if you are thinking to BUY, do it now before you lose another 30% of your buying power. If you think you want to hold off SELLING until you hit 2008 prices again, don’t expect to see that again until 2020.

If you want more information, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

The killings at the Sikh Temple in Wisconsin are tragic and speak to a deeper illness in our society. It is an illness that we cannot address in one day or even one year.

But what we can do in one day is make a statement. We stand together. We can educate. We can reach out.

We are writing together because we were both touched by last Sunday’s events. Clearly, we are grief stricken for the victims of the shooter. And we are floored by fact that this confused and misguided murderer misdirected the anger resulting from stereotypes around cultures known to wear turbans.

This is so tragic and telling in so many ways. It is tragic that any person would kill civilians and worshipers of any religion. But it speaks volumes about our country and our culture that so many people do not understand who Sikhs are, let alone other groups at large. In this person’s haste to hate and destroy, he attacked anybody who even remotely resembled the target of his hatred.

This presents an inspiring opportunity for our communities to learn more about each other and in particular this powerful Ashram community embodying the maxim “All are One.”

We, the authors of this blog post have our own connections to this community. Harpal Kaur Khalsa is a Sikh member of the Guru Nanak Dwara Ashram here in Phoenix and has participated in the community as a teacher of kundalini yoga as taught by Yogi Bhajan for the last 5 years. Ken Clark, a resident of downtown, is not a Sikh, but who has benefited from the kindness of the Ashram’s members.

What we share in common, too, –and what we want to share with you– is an understanding of the role of the Ashram in the Coronado Historic Neighborhood. We believe that the Ashram represents a largely untold story in central Phoenix.

The Ashram has been operating since 1972 and will soon expand its new Gurdwara to serve its growing congregation. There are only about 30 million Sikhs, worldwide and only a few hundred thousand in the United States. The congregation in Phoenix may only number in the low thousands. But their influence is felt strongly here.

The Ashram has been a stabilizing force in the neighborhood, even in those years that the Coronado Neighborhood saw its worst blight, crime and dilapidation. Members of the Ashram educate the children of Sikhs and non-Sikhs, alike, in the Kahlsa Montessori schools in Phoenix. They provide a place, not only for yoga classes, but for refuge and contemplation.

In this way, they are unique, but also no different from any Christian, Jewish or Muslim congregation in America. As such, we hope you will join us as we unite to make a statement about this community’s support for our neighbors. We hope to introduce you to this congregation if you have not yet met them. We  hope to illuminate this unique group of people so that a tragedy like this will never happen again.

Please join us as we attend the AZ Sikh Candlelight Vigil at Cesar Chavez Plaza (201 W. Washington St.) on Thursday, August 9th at 7:30pm.

In Peace.

Harpal Kaur Khalsa                                                  Ken Clark

Well, the Fairhope House is back on the market. This is bad news for the people who wanted to buy it and for the sellers, but it is great news for you. Here is why. This is a short sale. That means the sellers accepted an offer and then turned to their original lender on the property to get permission to sell at that offer price.

The lender did an appraisal and decided the property was worth $730,000. So, the buyers were not at that price and walked away. While sad, this gives an incredibly valuable piece of information that you could not get in a normal sale or a foreclosure: the drop-dead, bottom line price. This is a pre-approved sales price!

So, please see this link. The new sales price is $730,000.

Now, any buyer can walk in knowing exactly what the buyer’s lender will accept. (If they are lucky, the buyer will get under contract, do an appraisal and might even force the price down further!).

So, please help spread the word. Help us prevent this outstanding property from sitting in the ghostly limbo of foreclosure-land for possibly months. This is an incredible opportunity to own THE FLAGSHIP PROPERTY IN WILLO.

Call me with questions at 602-456-9388.

From the “Cool Goings-on Desk”:

The Grand Avenue Arts & Small Business District is holding a logo design contest for the 4th Annual Grand Avenue Festival, scheduled for October 20, 2012.  The purpose of the contest is to create a unique logo representing the Grand Avenue Festival by letting artists show their creativity and style. The winning design will be featured on all promotional materials including; festival brochures, posters and a variety of community advertisements.  Additionally, the winning artist will receive their name or business entity acknowledged on the festival brochure as an in-kind sponsor.   

About the Festival:  The focus of the festival is to explore the history of Lower Grand and spotlight adaptive re-use projects and sustainability in the neighborhood. This celebration honors the local arts and small businesses, and encourages recycling and re-use so please be mindful of our mission when designing your submission. 

Eligibility: The contest is open to everyone 18 years of age and older, or with a parent’s consent for younger gifted individuals.

Submission Requirements: Preferred file type is .ai or a vector .eps (will accept .pdf, .jpg, .tif but they must be highquality, minimum of 300 dpi at a physical size of 3″ x 3″); all fonts must be converted to outlines; logo submissions must print well as both color or black & white

Entry Info and Deadline: Contest entries must be received no later than 5pm, August 3rd, 2012, for consideration.  The festival planning committee will notify the winner no later than August 10th, 2012. Contest entries should be sent to grandavelogo@gmail.com

Intellectual Property Rights: The winning designs submitted for this contest become the property of Grand Avenue Arts & Small Business District and the Grand Avenue Merchants Association (GAMA). By submitting the design, the entrant warrants that the work is original and free of all copyright or other encumbrances that would prevent its use by the Grand Avenue Arts & Small Business District and GAMA for any of the intended purposes.

Privacy and Personal Data: Submissions are confidential until the completion of judging and until the announcement of the winner. Only the submissions of the winner will be disclosed and published. The designs and all personal data of all other submissions will be kept confidential, other than announcing the total number of submissions received. 

Questions: All artists and their suggestions are welcome! For more information, please contact grandavephoenix@gmail.com

Feel free to share this announcement !  Here’s a PDF of contest entry requirements or you can visit the Grand Avenue FB  Events page.

Houses are being scooped up really quickly right now.  This is no exaggeration: good homes are selling within 24-48 hours now. I’ve seen how frustrating it’s been for some of my clients when they don’t get the properties they offered on.

So… Here are five things that I am asking my clients to do to increase there chances of getting the property that they want. (There are other things, but I can’t give away all my trade secrets!)

1.  Check MLS in the evening, rather than the morning.

Most agents don’t get up early and post new listings. They do it at night. I try to check for new listings in the evening for this reason. If you see something you like, shoot your Realtor an email.

2.   Look closely at the neighborhood on the Internet before visiting the property.

If you are looking at one property in a neighborhood you don’t like, you might miss another property that you do like. So, let’s use the Internet to our advantage. Type the address of the property in to Google Street View and have a look around. We agents already have an opinion of the neighborhoods that we know. But we can’t always predict what you like.

3.  View the property within hours of identifying it, not days.

My “Get Your PHX Team” is adapting to the market conditions. When a property comes on that one of my clients wants to see, the member of our team who is available immediately will try to get them in to see the property, quickly.

4. Have your prequalifcation letter or proof of funds ready.

Realtors cannot show properties unless the buyer has all their financing sorted out. In this market, we need to make decisions in hours. Further, sellers want to verify the buyer’s purchase method. So, everything has to be ready to go.

5. Print/Scan/Fax

These days, we are allowed to sign contracts, then scan or fax them. For this reason, I have my team carry blank contracts to a property in case a buyer wants to make the offer immediately. However, if we don’t write a contract on the spot, we may need the buyer to print/sign/return documents quickly. If a buyer doesn’t have this capability at their office or home, it’s important for them to let us know before we view properties.

The rush that we Realtors feel in this market is frustrating. We understand that nobody likes to feel pressured. Yet, we want the buyer to get what they need and we sincerely appreciate their patience and accommodations. By doing these five things, we are more competitive in getting buyers the property they want.

[image: woodleywonderworks]

Thank you to all the folks at 180°Automotive for a great July 2012 Get Your PHX event.  We had over 20 raffle prizes to hand out and lots of happy attendees. The success of the free raffle makes me think that we should make that a regular thing. So, if you represent a business looking for local exposure in a group of hip, well connected professionals, please respond to me at this address and let me know what you’d like to raffle off.

But, special thanks to Christine Cassano and Monika Woolsey for helping to organize the raffle. Of course, thank you to Bogi Lateiner, Heidi Abrahamson, Kate Benjamin, Christine Cassano (get well soon) and Tracy Perkins for participating in our honoring of their inspiring contributions to CenPho.

So, we are going to enjoy the August Get Your PHX in the best way we know how: with a cold beer in hand at the new Phoenix Ale Brewery.

I’m very excited about this event because we are not only celebrating good beer, but we are also building a new history in Phoenix. Did you know that Phoenix used to have a number of local breweries until the big corporate brewers gobbled up the market? Obviously, we have seen a resurgence of domestic brewing in America over the last 25 years. Naturally, you can find franchise restaurants that brew their own batches. But we are starting to see more local brewers who tailor to a local market –finding that there is sufficient interest in their product to survive.

I am happy to announce that our August hosts will be George Hancock and Gregory Fretz, owners of the Phoenix Ale Brewery, along with their Head Brewer John Donehower. We will get a tour of the brewery, get a taste of the beers on special and George is arranging for a special appearance of LunchaLibre, a local food truck.

This is no average beer. I discovered Phoenix Ale Brewery when I tried their Watermelon Wheat Ale at Urban Beans last month. I was very impressed with how they handled this delicate, complex taste. The quality of the brew made sense when I discovered that George Hancock was one of the founders of Pyramid Ale almost 25 years ago. Brewmaster Donehower has also put together the Camelback Indian Pale Ale, Fretzy’s Unfiltered Ale and the Ironwood Imperial Porter. George also tells me that they are introducing a new Imperial Hefeweizen called Wheatstalk. So, you will be some of the first folks to get to taste that.

I’m looking forward, not only to learning from George, Gregory and John’s experiences, but also in helping to support a new era in local urban brewing.

Please RSVP on Facebook here.

August 2012 Get Your PHX
Thursday, August 23rd at 5:30
Phoenix Ale Brewery
3002 E Washington
Phoenix AZ 85034  Map it

From the “In Case You Had Not Already Heard” department….

This news is a few days old, but I wanted to touch on it because this says a lot about all of the work y’all have been doing to emphasize supporting local.

The Arizona Capitol Times spoke with Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton about it:

 

Not only is the city following a policy that provides for prudent and efficient investment, but provides additional funds for consumer and small-business loans in the local economy.”

Another reason for the city’s investment is to hopefully get a higher rate of return on some of Phoenix’s other investments. This move isn’t a totally unique one as several cities around the country have been implementing plans like this to manage their money in the fallout from the financial crisis.

It sounds like a novel idea and it stimulates and benefits the local economy, so why aren’t their reports of a high number of states and cities implementing such a plan? Says the Capitol Times…

Investing money in local banks isn’t easy. State law requires that the city’s bank deposits be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to prevent it from losing taxpayer money if the bank fails. The maximum federal insurance on low-risk investments that the city might utilize, such as a certificate of deposit, is $250,000. That could require the city to work with many banks if it hopes to invest anywhere near $50 million locally.

For these reasons, Phoenix mostly invests in U.S. government securities.

Jeff Dewitt, the City of Phoenix Finance Director said the city probably can’t invest more in local banks likely could not invest more in local banks given FDIC insurance limits. The East Valley Tribune also reported that Phoenix has a team of in-house investment managers who oversee its deposits and ensure that city funds are protected while earning the highest yield possible. Dewitt said the city is inviting local banks to submit applications with their investment pitches. He said proposals must be completely FDIC-insured or collateralized and offer a higher rate of return than U.S. Treasury notes.

As Local First so wonderfully reminds us,

The flow of these dollars will recirculate throughout the local economy, creating jobs and securing a strong economic future for our community. If you are a locally-owned and operated bank or credit union: Phoenix’s Finance Department will be accepting applications from local banks that have an interest in providing CDs and other FDIC-insured products to the city.  Local banks can contact the city’s Finance Department at 602-262-7166 for more information or to submit an application.”

Not to be confused with the Forces of Darkness or The Force–though the definition may not be as far off as you might think–to “Countervail” is, according to Mr. Webster, “to exert force against an opposing and often bad or harmful force or influence”.

The Countervailing Forces I’m referring to are the interest rates of homes for sale. Specifically, we want to look at the quite low interest rates currently in play and the opposing force of “just slightly increased interest rates, like something as slight as 1/2 a percent”.

I know what some of you are thinking. Aren’t opposing forces supposed to be opposites? Extreme opposites, especially? Not necessarily.

Let me show you why even a small percentage is enough to separate the good, from the bad and the ugly.

On one side of the ledger are those who argue that home prices are going up. It’s true. I mean, I see how prices seem to be going up. What I don’t see is where inventory is coming into the market. What about Shadow Inventory, you say? There is no Shadow Inventory.

And anything that is added to the inventory of homes for sale is on the edges of town, out where home builders are going in. The point here is that these new homes are not in the sub-burbs.

On the other side of the ledger are those who stress that we don’t know how long interest rates will stay as low as they are right now.

Those are the two groups of people on either side of the fence. This is where the countervailing forces of interest rates–the rates now vs. the slightly increased rates of the future–comes in.

When the interest rate goes up even one-half of one percent, you lose a noteworthy amount of your home’s buying power. If you decide to wait and sell your house later, when the interest rates go up, the risk is that buyers will not be able to get the rate they are getting today.

Here’s a practical example of what I’m talking about:

•  Take a $200,000 home
• Bought with 4.5% interest
• With principal and interestThat’s $962/month in mortgage.

• That same home
• At 5% interest Is $1020/month.

Look at those two numbers. Imagine you’re the one looking to buy that home. See how the difference is significant in it’s impact on a buyer’s ability to buy your home?

If you’re the seller and that happens it may be harder to sell your home.

So when you see interest rates separated by 1/2 % and think, “Big deal.  I’d rather sell my home for even a half % more.  I’ll wait to sell”, remember this example of the countervailing forces.

Don’t fall for the bad and the ugly.
Be good and be smart.

Please spread the word. We have two open houses this weekend.

Saturday from noon until 3pm – 4729 N 76th Pl. in Scottsdale
This is a great single level home in Villa Monterey. Corner unit with rare side access gate to backyard. 2 bedrooms plus bonus den area. Updated kitchen with granite counter tops, built-in oven, smooth cook top, and eating area. Expansive living room huge window overlooking private yard. Huge master suite with updated bath. Private backyard with covered patio and mature citrus trees.

Drop by and say hello to Michelle Conley, the newest Get Your PHX team member.

Sunday from 11am to 2pm – 140 E Coronado Rd.

Villa del Coronado is one of the most sought after and unique co-op communities in Phoenix, steps away from museums, light rail, health clubs and restaurants. This 2 bedroom, 1.75 bath home has seen numerous improvements over recent years: opening up the living and dining rooms, UV protecting on the windows, renovating the kitchen a installing a beautiful master bathroom. Don’t miss the huge 5′ x 24′ living room balcony and the 5′ x 14′ off the master bedroom. Located in an elevator building, this unit is one of the few with a permitted full size washer and dryer and a detached garage! Cash buyers or seller may carry. All utilities and property taxes are included in the monthly HOA fee. This is perfect for refined downtown living.

Photo by Stacy Champion

There is an interesting buzz around downtown, along the Roosevelt Row. Spaces are filling up along Roosevelt as the economy rebounds.

There’s the Concordia Eastridge Complex going up—slowly rising up to replace that empty dirt lot that used to greet you as you exited from off the I-10 exit on 3^rd street. As I pulled off that very exit this afternoon, I said to a friend, “Look at our new entrance to downtown Phoenix. No more greetings from a forty year old dirt lot. This is looking to be a proper welcoming. ”

And there’s the old Canvass location at 3rd Street and Roosevelt, which back in 2008 was all talk about the multitude of places going in, but which never materialized (see the link for an artist rendering and a list of venues planned, but not done) and which is now getting a bunch of new goodies: an ice cream parlor, a Vietnamese restaurant, an Italian restaurant, and a French restaurant (operated by Duc and Noelle Liao, chef-owners of Scratch Pastries). According to the Phoenix New times, four leases were signed last month so this isn’t just wishful thinking or hearsay.

Speaking of Scratch, there’s an interview with Duc and Noelle called, “The Sweet Life” in the July/August issue of Java Magazine. (The link is a little weird, it’s a photo scan of the magazine, so just click the little arrow at top middle to read the 2^nd page of the article).

They have had such great success with Scratch Scottsdale that they are opening a second location next fall….it will have a café and an adjoining pastry shop, and Noelle emphasizes that the new café’ will be much more than a coffee shop…the new Scratch will also have a full kitchen/full menu.” ~ Jenna Duncan (Java Magazine)

Don’t miss out on all the new opportunities coming to Roosevelt. I’ll update you on all the other  new places as I hear about them in the days ahead.

Of course, don’t forget that I now have a workspace here at monOrchid, next to the new Songbird Tea and Coffeehouse. See the story, here.