I was standing in the dog park the other day, a place I can only go before the sun tops the trees from the east or after it’s ducked behind the trees to the west. One of the other dog owners said to me, “only two and a half months to go!”

That was more than a little bit depressing. I immediately imagined waking up every morning for the next 75 days and struggling to brave out in to the heat. It’s what we do for our pets, right?

I’m constantly on the look-out for things to do to break the monotony, or interesting topics to follow down a rabbit hole while sipping an iced coffee in some darkened coffee shop around town.

Here are a few for August.

“The future, my boy, is in EVs.” Y’all know I’m a broken record about all things sustainable, including EVs. So, it was nice to see this study from the Arizona Public Interest Research Group, as reported in AZ Central, that detailed how save over $280 million over the next ten years simply by replacing its aging fleet with EVs. We are not talking about selling thousands of cars tomorrow. The state just needs to replace aging light duty vehicles with EVs when they would have gone out of service anyway. Nothing radical. (BTW, here’s a little myth busting video about the lie that EVs are worse for the environment than internal combustion engines.)

While you are doing down that rabbit hole. As much as I extoll the virtues of EVs, we need to think radically differently about how we design our cities, and we can start today. There’s a new podcast from Rollie Williams, the creator of the hilarious “Climate Town” Youtube channel. It is called the Climate Denier’s Playbook, and here’s an episode on how EV’s can be a pyrric solution if we don’t deal with traffic and city planning, as well. Check out this great video on the history of parking laws and how they has contributed to climate change and even the heat island that is making your nights so unbearable right now.

Coming back out of the rabbit hole. And back in to the heat of summer in AZ, I used the city of Phoenix’s new at-home pick-up service for my hazardous materials. This may seem like a mundane issue, but if you are trying to properly dispose of old batteries, electronics and chemicals, this is a game changer! You may have seen my older articles on how to find monthly hazardous waste drop-off locations. Since Covid, the City of Phoenix has started coming to you. All I had to do was follow the instructions to notify the city, sort the waste and set it out for them to pick up. Hopefully we will increase the amount of lithium-ion batteries recycled from the abysmal 1% to something a little more civilized, like 90%.

All Puppet Players meets MST3K. If you know All Puppet Players, you know All Puppet Players. If you know Mystery Science Theater 3000, you know Mystery Science Theater 3000. I hope for your sake, you know them both and you get a chance to see the All Puppet Players’ summer film series, which helps us get through those dry summer months until their 2023/24 season starts in September. The summer series takes place in the beautiful Orpheum Theater, with a whole series of cringe-worthy movies. I love the juxtaposition of puppets making fun of pulp, junk movies in the beauty of this old theater. Personally, I laughed non-stop through the whole show.

Jane Goodall has hope for the future. As we suffer through 31 straight days over 100º, it is difficult to maintain optimism. However, Jane Goodall – Reasons for Hope is an uplifting journey around the globe to highlight good news stories that inspire people to make a difference in the world around them. Featured stories such as the Northern Bald Ibis’ migration over the Alps, the re-introduction of the American Bison by the Blackfeet Nation, the worldwide recognized Sudbury Regreening Story, and inspiring youth-led initiatives involved in Jane Goodall’s Roots & Shoots align with historical footage of Jane’s beginnings as a chimpanzee researcher. Join her on this adventure of inspiration and hope. Irene P. Flinn Theatre. $9 plus general admission. Daily showings at the Arizona Science Center.

The Moth – Phoenix Stories. If you’ve ever listened to the Moth Podcast, you know that these live, true stories can be funny, heartwarming or even heartbreaking. In any case, they are very accessible. They are open to anyone with a five-minute story to share on the night’s theme. I’ve been approached to tell one of these stories, but I always hesitate to be that vulnerable on state. So, I admire those who are willing to do it. You can tell a story, or just enjoy the show at the Crescent Ballroom. $15.

The Juno Show. To hell with anybody who tells us that drag shows are deviant or harmful, especially when the drag queen is also an alien. Welcome to The Juno Show! Everyone’s favorite alien drag queen Juno Birch, stars in her theatrical one-woman show. Witness the alien queen express her delusional self-love through slapstick song and “dance.” Her plastic puppet daughter will join her on a chaotic stage adventure full of lobsters, legs, and laughter. Planet Earth, prepare to be stunned! Yes, that’s happening! $35 – $70.

Local First Good Food Forum. After more than a decade of supporting Arizona’s localized food system through two signature events – Arizona’s Food and Farm Forum and the Good Food Expo – Local First Arizona is combining the two events into the Good Food Forum + Expo. Come learn about Arizona’s local food system and experience Arizona’s finest food and ingredients at this combined Local First Arizona signature event. Tuesday, August 29th. Forum runs from 9 am to 12:15 pm. The Expo runs from 11 am to 2 pm. Mesa Convention Center, Building B & C- 263 North Center Street Mesa, AZ 85201

We can expect more tightness in the market, as we move in to August and September.

Not a shocking theory, I know. For those of you who have read this blog for a while, you know that there is a rhythm to the market that happens throughout the year, regardless of whether it is a high or low market.

From February until the end of June there are more buyers and sellers relative to other parts of the year. It cools from July until September. Then we begin the second heaviest season, which ends around Thanksgiving. Then people almost totally disappear until January.

Get ready for the more buyers beginning in late August or September.

The problem is that, if you look at inventory you can see that inventory has been dropping, and may flatten towards the end of the year. As I see it, buyers will come on when the nights begin to cool off, but any increase in inventory won’t be enough to balance the demand.

In short, if you are thinking of selling, listing in September will be a good time to do it. If you have repairs to do on your home to prepare it for sale (remember, you are competing against total renovation homes), then now is the time to start planning.

Here’s what the folks at the Cromford Report have to say about where we are…

ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2023 compared with August 1, 2022 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 11,241 versus 17,957 last year – down 37% – and down 2.6% from 11,545 last month
• Pending Listings: 4,842 versus 5,291 last year – down 8.5% – and down 3.1% from 4,997 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 7,546 versus 8,058 last year – down 6.4% – and down 4.0% from 7,858 last month
• Monthly Sales: 5,906 versus 6,190 last year – down 4.6% – and down 21% from 7,452 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $282.34 versus $286.03 last year – down 1.3% – and down 1.9% from $287.78 last month

Comparisons with this time last year continue to get easier, as a year ago the market was deteriorating quickly as institutional investors and iBuyers pulled out of the market.

Now we have a re-sale market which is plodding along slowly with poor demand and weak supply. There is little to get excited about unless you are in the new home construction business. At the time of writing the typical 30 year fixed mortgage rate is up to 7.20%, so affording to buy a home just got a little harder. Selling an existing home with a mortgage looks even less attractive, so new MLS listings are arriving in very low numbers, as they have done all year.

Some badly informed observers still think there is a bubble popping situation ahead, but they completely misunderstand the situation. For prices to fall, we have to have an excess supply compared to demand. Even though demand is very weak, supply actually got 2.6% smaller over the last month. There is very low delinquency in residential real estate lending right now, so it takes a ridiculous leap of great imagination to believe that foreclosures are going to have any significant effect on supply in the foreseeable future.