Our list of August events comes to you after some cooling rains in July and the hope for a few more while we wait for the next two months for that first moment one early morning when you feel a wisp of cool(ish) air foretelling the coming of the end of summer.

Enjoy

Pop! The Science of Bubbles is the Arizona Science Center’s latest exhibition. It will have the whole family bursting with excitement as they learn about concepts like color, elasticity, surface tension, chemistry, and even geometry. Come make some bubbles (and memories) in a newly-reimagined outdoor space. Cost is about $20.

First Friday is a thing, in case you forgot over the last year and a half. And it’s still wonderful. But I wanted to point out that the Phoenix Art Museum celebrates First Friday this Friday, with voluntary-donation hours for general admission and reduced rates to view special-engagement exhibitions. Consider making a donation to support your Museum and this free-access time for our community. The Heard Museum also has free admissions on First Friday. So, stroll on up –or down, depending on where you start, I guess.

Jazzy Brunch is a recently new feature at El Charro Hipster Bar & Cafe Restaurant. I don’t know if you’ve been to Grand Ave recently, but it is absolutely hopping. It kinda reminds me of what Roosevelt Row used to be like, before all the monolithic apartment buildings came in and turned it into Roosevelt Canyon.

Some Nudity Required is a film about the world of low budget films where unscrupulous film makers try and get female actresses to appear in the nude. To be honest, I’m sharing this event with you not so much based on the topic of the film and more as a reminder that Film Bar survived and you can see movies there again! But I got you with the title, huh? Regardless, watch for it August 8th.

Local First Arizona is hosting an event called How to Strengthen The Links in Your Supply Chain on August 11th. The pandemic revealed the weaknesses in supply chains (e.g., milk and produce delivery) of which most of us were not aware. Local First Arizona’s CEO Thomas Barr will join Tempe Mayor Corey Woods, and other business and government leaders in providing information and recommendations. There are a limited number of in-person tickets for the event, so follow the link above to sign up.

Rapunzel will be at the Great Arizona Puppet Theatre on August 19th. An enchanting version of “Rapunzel” magically unfolds from an antique trunk. This beautiful tale is based on the original story The Brothers Grimm and is recommended for ages 5 and up. $8 – $12.

Neko Case spent many years entertaining in Arizona. Specifically, Tucson –way before Phoenix had the music scene that it does today. I have a friend who will tell you, with very little prompting at all, about how she stayed on his couch one night. So, in honor of his story, I figured I’d share that she will be at the Van Buren on August 22nd.

The Wrigley Mansion Wine Festival is new to me, so I figured I’d share. The Wrigley Mansion is that impressive home on top of a protruding hill, right next to the Biltmore Resort. If you’ve not been in there, it is worth a visit. Plus the history and the tie to the gum-making family is interesting. Funny, though. While it is a mansion, it speaks volumes that it seems to a fraction of the size of mansions we see today –even some McMansions. Not sure what that says about what it means to be rich these days. But worth a thought.

For more, see this handy calendar prepared for us by my friend Cynthia at Old Republic Title.

Our August listings and solds remain strong. As usual, keep an eye on our live listings page to see all updates.

There are so few listings out there that agents are scrambling to pick up sellers. We have listings now because we have a proven track record of working hard for our clients’ interests. That’s a true measure of value.

Beware of offers to sell your property that seem too good to be true. An agent who promises to sell your home for a 1% commission most likely does not give you the quality of work that you deserve, or pushed most of the work off on you.

Beware of “ibuyer” firms that offer to sell your house quickly for cash. You will not be protected by an agent on your side who will make certain you are not provided with price data that undervalues your property, or that will fight against unreasonable inspection requests, or any number of tricks that these companies play on unsuspecting sellers.

Coming up…

Coming this week is a 2br/1ba, 1,008sf property with a beautiful pool. This property is located at about 3rd Ave and Camelback –so within stone’s throw of a whole array of some of the most interesting restaurants, stores and coffee shops in Central Phoenix.

We expect this one to go quickly. The final list price has not yet been announced, but expect it to come on right around $400,000 later this week. The current owner is an architect, who has already prepared plans for an addition off the back of the property, to add a room and a bathroom.

The back yard also backs up to an abandoned alley. So all the owner has to do is petition the city to claim half of that abandoned alley and they will add valuable square footage to the back yard –maybe enough for a guest house.

This is the first of our August listings. So, stay tuned for more.

Sold

We went quickly under contract on a four-bedroom, 2 bath 1,858sf investment property with a pool in Tempe, which was beautifully renovated just a few years ago.

The seller had prepared the property to sell either to investors or buyers who wanted to a plug-and-play (or is that plug-and-live?) property.

Since purchase, the owners have made over $58,000 in improvements, including new exterior siding, pool resurfacing, pool heater and automation, panel installation , replacement of old Orangeburg sewer line, new washer and dryer, new pool pump and back yard landscaping with high quality turf installation. They have also added over $55,000 worth of home furnishings and accessories.

We just closed on this 900sf 2br/2ba condo, across from all the great restaurants at Montebello and 7th St. This property went under contract quickly and above list price. It is nearly impossible to find a property at this price in this market, located next to so many great uptown restaurants and shopping. This shady condo community is stable and well-managed. The property has been partially updated with new flooring and paint, so you can make it your own.

If you have specific questions about these properties, please contact us at 602-456-9388.

The August Shortage Update is showing things getting a little better. Not a lot better. More like “better” in how the new Suicide Squad sequel will certainly be better than the first soggy rag of a movie that the first one was.

To put that in real estate terms, watch how the Cromford Index is dropping right now. That’s an indication that the sellers’ advantage is shifting.

Cromford Report eggheads, take it from there…

“Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2021 compared with August 1, 2020 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 7,105 versus 8,477 last year – down 16.2% – but up 24.7% from 5,699 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $250.93 versus $191.21 last year – up 31.2% – but down 0.5% from $252.15 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $400,000 versus $315,000 last year – up 27.0% – and up 0.8% from $397,000 last month

Supply continues to move higher. We would usually consider a 24.7% increase in one month to be an exceptional growth rate. However, we are rising from a very low point and the number of active listings without a contract is still down 75% from what would be considered normal. We are witnessing new listings arrive at a faster rate than we usually see at this time of year, especially those priced between $400,000 and $1 million. This is helping buyers, but there are still far more buyers than homes for sale.”

My “normal person language” interjection here for the August Shortage report: If you have been thinking of selling, do it now before a bunch of houses come on later this year to compete with you.

To continue with our Cromford Analysis…

“I still read articles describing demand as exceptionally strong. This is absurd. Demand is only slightly above normal and has been getting weaker over the last several months. This is obvious both from the pending and under contract counts (down compared with last month and last year). and from the monthly sales counts (down compared with last month and last year). If demand were strong, then all these numbers should be responding to the increase in supply. They are not.

The large majority of market commentators have not grasped that demand is not the issue. Interest rates are not the issue either. Everything today is about supply. Even after a rise of almost 25% there is nowhere near enough supply to take the stress out of the market.

Demand has changed its make-up since the start of the year. Owner-occupiers are down, while second-home buyers are up, particularly those from out-of-state. Also more active are iBuyers and all types of investors, with fix and flip and buy-to-rent investors filling the gap left by owner occupiers. Many buy-to-rent operators are buying from each other, and a few are building neighborhoods entirely for rent. This practice started in Phoenix in 2012 and the original local company that built the first rental neighborhood in Gilbert has just sold it complete to one of the large institutions. The build-to-rent business does not affect our numbers since the entire neighborhood is owned by a single company and the homes are never listed for sale. It is similar to the multi-family apartment block market. The only difference is that the homes are physically more separated from one another, an attractive benefit during a pandemic.”

Gonna interject here again with my August Shortage Update perspective and tell you, “I’ve been saying this for a while. The combination of rental buying companies, individual rental investors and short-term rental buyers have crowded out regular buyers and have driven prices up. Not sure how this ends.”

Cromford continues…

“Over the last year, prices have not been rising because of strong demand or low interest rate, as often stated by the media. They have been rising because of extremely poor supply. Buyers do not pay more for a home because they can. They pay more because they have to. Multiple bids make them pay more, unless they drop out. Low interest rates merely allow them to compete. If there were more homes for sale, they would get the home for less than the asking price. During July the average buyer had to pay 1.4% over the asking price.

New home builders currently experience elevated demand because so many buyers have given up on trying to find a re-sale property. But the demand they perceive is due to the low supply of re-sale homes, not some unusual build up of buyer demand. The new and re-sale markets are not really separate because almost every buyer can switch from one to the other based on personal decisions. Buyers are spilling over to the new home market that would normally have chosen a resale home.

The market remains hot but has been cooling for 4 months now and this is reflected in a large array of measurements. For example:

• In June, buyers were paying 1.8% more than list price on average, well above the current 1.4%
• The listing success rate is down to 89.3%, having peaked at 93.1% in May
• The contract ratio is down to 155, having reached 332 in March

Prices have been leveling off over the past month. This is consistent with the seasonal trend that weakens prices during the third quarter in most years. It is caused a by a slowdown in high end sales during the hottest months (May through September) We did not see that effect last year because of the lock-down, but this year we expect 3Q to be nothing like the explosive 2Q. There is still no long-term downward pressure on prices and this pressure is unlikely to emerge until supply rises much higher than current levels.”

I know this August Shortage Update has been a lot longer than I usually write these. But there is a lot of nuance that the regular media is missing.

Give us a call at 602-456-9388 if you are making plans to buy or sell. We can help build the best strategy.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  This month, Donna tells us about some of the distinct hidden gems that you can find if you look among all of the warehouses and tall buildings downtown –still standing like that little house with balloons in the movie Up!.

Perkins’ and Coble’s real estate ad promoted buying unimproved and improved lots in Montgomery Addition in 1890. The Montgomery Addition, located between 7^th Avenue and Central, and Harrison and Apache, was one of the larger parcels subdivided at the time. It is also one place where we can still find those hidden gems of Phoenix history from the pre-1900 and circa 1900 era.

While long time valley residents lament the loss of historic, or at least very old buildings, Phoenix is losing even the “newer” post-WWII structures. So, finding clusters of our older buildings is an adventure and certainly provides a lesson in the growth and development of Phoenix since its inception.

But we should remember that over time certain styles have fallen out of favor and many people, ages ago and now, often prefer something shiny and new. It’s the “out with the old and in with the new” and not everyone was or is going to be happy with that attitude.

The late 1800s are notable for the Victorian style of architecture and all its quirks, gingerbread ornamentation, and tower rooms. The most common types of this architecture are classified as Queen Ann (like the Evans House at 1100 West Washington), Eastlake (like the Rosson House in Historic Heritage Square), and Shingle (like the Smurthwaite House at 1317 West Jefferson).

Some of the key homes from this turn of the 19^th Century still reside on South First Avenue starting in the 700 block. Look for the Queen Ann/Neo-Colonial Revival style in the E.S. Turner House at 704 South First Avenue. 818 South First Avenue is much simpler, but still a “grand” vernacular, once a common type in Phoenix.

But near the end of the 19^th Century, changes had already started with a movement away from these fanciful Victorian styles or a combination of styles.

The vernacular designs have certain elements of what one might have found on the East Coast. The brick house M.C. Sharp built for Ernest Howard in 1903 at 1012 South First Avenue is a delightful example with its gable roof and the long side of the house facing the street. A rather simple version of a cottage. Across the street at 1009 South First Avenue was M.C. Sharp’s brother’s house. W.J. Sharp had his Queen Ann/Neo-Colonial Revival house built c. 1899. While this house looks good from the street, unfortunately it has lost a lot of its Victorian accoutrements in the past 20 years.

Today Phoenix has less than 50 buildings built prior to 1900 with a remarkable portion in Montgomery Addition. We need to be careful not to lose any more.