As I was putting together the list of events this month, I was thinking that I’d love to share some of the more interesting things I’ve read, heard or viewed this month.

Hydro-pocalypse. One of the authors of the 1980 groundwater management act is telling us that we are very far from where we need to be to live in water balance in Arizona.If we don’t change course, AZ is heading for disaster. But there is a solution, if we act now. I summarize the issue in my short Facebook video and the AZ Central is worth a read.

Established Climate Science. People often argue that climate science is unproven because it’s new. This amazing article from the Daily Sun in Flagstaff details how long we’ve known about the science that underlies our understanding of what human activity is doing to our planet, and what we need to do to repair it.

Tree Equity. One of the things we can do, among many others, is plant more trees. But we need to understand the importance of equity in this and many actions we take on climate. Wouldn’t you know it? It turns out that even tree planting in most American cities has been unequal historically. The nice thing is that it can be easily remedied. I know that Phoenix is working toward that.

Forest Restoration Good News. It’s not all doom and gloom. A recent report from the Northern Arizona University demonstrates that the benefits of investing in forest heath (aka, science-based thinning and clearing) have a much longer and more profound return on investment than we originally thought. Lesson? The state of Arizona should invest heavily in forest health. It will preserve our natural wonders, cut down on forest fires, create jobs and preserve water.

Exxon: The Road Not Taken. Many of us have claimed for a long time that large oil companies took steps to hinder wise policy to fight climate change, even though they knew it was a problem.

This new article from Inside Climate News uses primary sources (including internal company files never before seen, interviews with former company employees, and other evidence) to tell a story of a company that went from identify the problem to covering it up. Riveting reading.

More and more things are opening up in Phoenix and we curate a list of June events for you.

It’s exciting. It’s odd too, isn’t it? I find myself walking around with my mask, constantly putting in on and taking it off. It’s a strange state of flux. Some establishments want them on and some don’t. I try to keep mine on, just to be safe. But then often find myself forgetting to take it with me.

Well, be safe, no matter how you are adapting. Only 50% of the population is vaccinated and I think we need to get to 80% to reach herd immunity.

Enjoy your June events, and please send us suggestions for July. We’d love to hear from you.

Arizona History Happy Hour with Marshall Shore. Grab a beverage and get ready for some fun!

Marshall Shore, Arizona’s Hip Historian, brings you a weekly happy hour (with cocktail recipe) to enjoy interesting tidbits and curiosities from Arizona’s past. He will feature trivia, music history, and little Arizona. Free via Facebook.

Behind the Scenes Science – Camp Innovation at the Arizona Science Center, June 14th. Each 5-day camp session introduces kids to STEM and builds skills for youth through high-energy challenges, building, and design opportunities, and concept exploration. Who’s ready for an exclusive exploration of the Center like you’ve never seen before? During this weeklong camp, step behind the curtain and discover the secrets of your favorite exhibits, learn how the planetarium works and so much more. BTS camp is sure to inspire, educate and engage your curious mind through hands-on science. $295

Pay What You Wish Wednesdays at the Phoenix Art Museum. Phoenix Art Museum offers voluntary-donation hours for general admission and reduced rates to view special-engagement exhibitions. Consider making a donation to support your Museum and these free-access times for our community. 3:00 – 7:00 PM

Water Harvesting Summit with UrbanFarm.org. You can harvest enough rain water every year in Arizona to care for most of your gardening or urban farming needs, believe it or not. I do some of it, and I wish I had more water capacity. I could definitely us it! Join Greg Peterson and the Urban Farm team to learn how you can do it.

Wine Seance at the Farish House, June 17th. Farish House is going to host casual monthly “Wine Seances” where someone from the industry will join you at table, sample 4-5 wines and paired appetizers, and you’ll just sip, laugh and chat for a minute together. Then, they may progress on to Prosecco Spritzes, dinner or desserts, or, ahem, more wine. $25. Editor’s note: I really thought this was a seance, I was down for it. So, congrats to them for a great hook. Might still do this, even without the ghosts.

Daddy Long Legs at Phoenix Theatre Company on June 23rd. A heartwarming Cinderella story about a witty young woman and her mysterious benefactor, this award-winning off-Broadway hit musical offers gorgeous, soaring melodies. It follows Jerusha Abbott, who has grown up in an orphanage but is sent to college by a mysterious benefactor so she may learn to be a writer. The benefactor requires just one thing – that she write to him monthly, even though he will not respond. Her letters to him paint a moving portrait of the development of her mind and spirit, and she emerges as a fiercely independent, intelligent woman, who is destined to find love where she least expects it. $64 – $94.

I’m still gonna call the market update a “June shortage update.” I think it’s going to be a shortage for a while, so maybe this will be the new normal and I’ll get tired of calling it a shortage update.

But for now, my friends, our situation is only marginally better. We’ve gone from about 600 listings in Phoenix to about 700 since last month. Maybe we will still be talking about a “June shortage” in June of 2022. I hope not.

Here’s what the folks at the Cromford Report have to say about it.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for June 1, 2021 compared with June 1, 2020 the whole county:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,917 versus 11,917 last year – down 68.7% – and down 3.2% from 5,080 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,873 versus 7,224 last year – up 9.0% – and up 0.6% from 7,829 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,317 versus 12,478 last year – down 1.3% – but up 1.1% from 12,187 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,692 versus 7,045 last year – up 37.6% – but down 5.0% from 10,204 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $248.37 versus $179.79 last year – up 38.1% – and up 2.0% from $243.39 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $390,000 versus $293,000 last year – up 33.1% – and up 4.6% from $373,000 last month

“We note that the number of active listings is slightly higher than last month. That is entirely because June 1 fell on a Tuesday while May 1 fell on a Saturday. Saturdays tends to have much higher counts because of all the new listings activated on Thursday and Friday. In contrast, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have the lowest counts every week. If we compare the same day of the week, the number of active listings is up from last month by about 7%.”

“Supply is definitely rising, but not at a rate to help buyers very much, or to raise an alarm. It is rising because new listings are coming along at a faster rate than normal. However most of them are getting offers in the first week and they do not last very long. The market remains very hot even though it has cooled since March.”

“The demand numbers are moderating, with monthly sales down 5% compared with last month. However listings under contract are up slightly which means the downward trend in demand has stalled for now.”

“The rate of change in both supply and demand are both now moderate, but the rate of change for prices remains very high. We are seeing appreciation rates of 38% if you use price per sq. ft. or 33% if you use monthly medians. Both of these are flattering because part of the rise is due to high end homes taking a larger share of the market than normal for June. But however you measure them, home prices are at nose-bleed levels and will continue to rise while supply remains dramatically below normal. It is 76% below normal at the moment.”

“The period since June 2020 has been a painful 12 months for buyers and many are likely to be feeling bruised and beaten up. It would not be surprising if demand weakened further because of this, but withdrawing from the market is unlikely to be wise from a financial perspective. Prices still have a quite a lot of upward momentum and mortgage rates could easily move higher than today. Local buyers need to remember that to a buyer from California or Washington, Phoenix still looks like amazingly good value for money, even after another 20% price hike.”

“And what is your alternative – rents continue to climb at a steep rate and are unlikely to stop rising. At least if you buy a pricey home today you will benefit from the price growth tomorrow in the form of home equity. None of your rent payment will do that.”

Not much I can add than that final thought to the June Shortage Update. We’ve had clients exit the market and I’m sad to say that things will only be higher when they come back in about a year to look again. It reminds me of people back in 2010 exiting the market because they thought it was too high. They’d be sitting on about 40% free equity right now had they bought.

Whether you are buying or selling, call us at 602-456-9388 and we can help you build a strategy.