It is tough to talk about possible silver linings to a pandemic, especially while so many people are suffering. The reality is that this is tough for so many people.

Yet there is much discussion out there right now about whether this terrible situation might lead to changed behavior on the societal scale.

In this context, the things that are causing us to work differently might not only clean our air, but also lead to advances in efforts to prevent climate change.

Let’s start by looking at Phoenix air quality, over-all. That National Lung Association just presented their annual State of the Air report last month, in which they listed Phoenix as one of the worst places for air quality.

Ozone and particulate pollution comes from a mix of gases from cars, burning chemicals and wood and dust. When it mixes in the heat of the sun, it creates cancer-causing effects, asthma and possibly even dementia.

Phoenix has historically been terrible in this regard. The long-term political resistance to discouraging driving, to supporting mass transit, to urban planning, to planting more trees and to discouraging the use of wood burning at homes have all fed this problem.

This is our base-line. Any possible affects from changed behavior resulting from the pandemic won’t be recorded for a while. Sure, we see ozone levels lower over the last month. But, this is a problem caused by decades of behavior and will require long-term changes.

What we want to watch for is whether people will feel and remember the benefits they had when they stayed home to work and noticed the cleaner air. That is where the ozone silver lining comes in.

Right, you did not want to stay home for as long as you did. You did not want kids yelling in your ear while you are trying to maintain professionalism on a Zoom conference call.

But also, what have you been doing with that time that you don’t spend in your car and in traffic? I’ve heard so many inspiring stories from people about how they’ve re-connected with their personal time.

But, what would the city look like if 50% of office workers asked to work from home just two days more than they do now? We know we can do it and we can feel the benefits

The silver linings for climate change comes in a different way. It comes in directing federal stimulus money to investments in clean energy.

I think people would rather see stimulus money go to clean energy choices, which can save them money on energy, than to the deep pockets of CEOs of oil companies.

On one hand, the issue of the environment may drop on people’s minds as they worry about pandemic responses. Further, according to this article, “On Capitol Hill, the pandemic could threaten the fragile politics of environmental regulation and the Republican Party’s rapidly changing climate beliefs.”

Further, the pandemic could also undermine our ability to get out and prevent wildfires this summer.

But, as the previous article points out, there may be hope in all of this. According to Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Florida), “And if one silver linings can be seen through all of this, it’s the fact that we can work together and mobilize to confront a threat to our way of life in America and all across the globe.”

Articles I’ve seen point to an increasing trust of science and scientists. That trust may increase, as it should, when it comes to climate change and its solutions.

Further, I know from my conversations with people that they like the idea that Americans are coming together to solve a common problem. After COVID-19, our clean air and climate change problems will still be there, ready for us to unite around.

This article from Wired Magazine points to some of the unexpected consequences of how our fuel choices have changed over the last two months. Auto fuel usage has dropped and electricity usage has gone down as economic activity has dropped. Yet, with cheap prices for petrol comes less of an incentive to recycle plastic.

Yet, all of this leads to a unique opportunity to re-think our cities. Some cities have taken this opportunity to close more downtown streets to cars in favor of more bike and pedestrian traffic.

Just like with ozone levels, when we come out the other end of this crisis, the more people remember and feel the benefits of less drive time, the more we can all imagine a world in which we permanently have cleaner air and a reduced threat of climate change.

And those are some nice silver livings.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. This month, she is sharing her article on dancing joints throughout Phoenix history.

We use her services when we list properties of historic significance to help us tell the stories behind the homes.

We are happy that Donna is allowing us to re-publish some of her articles on a monthly basis. If you or your business ever needs a historian, let Donna know at laydeescholar “at” hotmail.com.

What did Phoenicians do for fun during the summer months when there was no TV, a few movie theaters, and dining out might be too expensive?

Riverside Park, near the Salt River just off Central, was established in 1914 to cover all those needs. It had places for children to play, picnic areas for families, a large pool, and a DANCE Pavilion. Later on, athletic events were held at Riverside. Certainly, entertainment for all ages was the key focus of this park. But we’re going to focus on dancing. So grab your dancin’ shoes, as it’s time to get your body moving.

Phoenicians eagerly awaited the opening of Riverside Park each May. The owners, Rickards and Nace (who also owned a number of movie theaters in the area), made sure that the park was ready, the bands were booked, and the newspaper announced the opening day. Dancing was available during the day and also in the evening to appeal to different age groups and accommodate the crowds. And what a great place to, fingers crossed, meet your future spouse to the tunes of some well-known band.

The success of Riverside Park probably influenced the growth of other places for open-air dancing. Evergreen Park on South 7^th Avenue was also near the river. It was in operation from 1928-1933. The Orange Grove Pavilion was on 7^th Street near Glendale Avenue. It opened in 1930 and closed in 1945.

The Plantation Ballroom located at 2300 East Washington started in 1932. Henry S. Gibbs, Sr., the owner, also owned the Willow Breeze on Lateral 14 (27^th Avenue) and Christy Road (McDowell).

One of the Plantation Ballroom’s “claim” to fame was when it burned down in 1952. Ralph Painter, Jr. of Channel 5 (KPHO) shot film becoming “Arizona’s first television news cameraman in the field.”

While the Plantation Ballroom was indoors, the Willow Breeze was open-air and many remember its string lights. Families were welcome there even into the 1950s.

By the 1960s, dance places began to cater to certain age groups and/or specific types of music. Mr. Lucky’s opened in 1966 (originally the owners wanted a casino). Rock and roll was on one floor and country western was upstairs. The Hullabaloo, designed as a teen club, was built on the formerT site of the Broadway Pool in 1967.

The Arizona Republic even ran listings on dine and dance spots throughout the valley. The locations varied from hotels to stand alone sites. Today, you can still grab your dancing shoes and find a spot where you can hit the floor and move about. Yes, dancing has never ceased to be a fun way to spend the evening anytime of the year.

For the May Market Update we continue to watch the affects of the pandemic.

People always ask me when home prices will be slashed, like they were in 2008. I continue to say that, while that may happen many months from now if the economy does not recover, that is not likely to happen any time soon.

Yeah, that seems counter-intuitive, right? I’m not just being one of those agents who is trying to “wish” the market higher. Michelle and I work just as hard when prices are low as when they are high.

So, let’s look at why prices are this way, with the help of our friends at the Cromford Report. Here are the several points to keep in mind.

1) While the Cromford Index is taking a steep dive, it is still above where it was last year, this time.

Also look at this graph. I turned on the lines for 2008 and 2009, when the Cromford Index was at its lowest point during the Great Recession.

While this current drop is dramatic, we have a long way to go before we see a buyer’s market, due to the huge shortage that we had last year.

Remember, the Cromford Index needs to drop below 100 for depreciation to begin. Between here and there, appreciation may slow, but prices will still increase at a rate greater than inflation.

The Cromford Index is a measure of advantage. Above 100 is seller advantage. Below 100 is buyer advantage. Between 90 and 110 is equilibrium. So this means specifically that, while prices may be coming down for current listings, as long as the Cromford Index is above 110, average prices will increase greater than inflation.

2) Even though demand has gone down the last month, so has supply.

So, that relative imbalance between supply and demand is certainly moving in the right direction for prices to eventually reach equilibrium, they won’t as long as there is a shortage of supply.

Every indication we have now is that supply is not going to increase any time soon. If buyers re-enter the market later this year if the economy starts to recover, that lack of supply will still be a problem until sellers decide to begin listing their properties in pretty significant numbers.

Buyers are taking a pause, worrying about the economy, and so are sellers.

The number of new listings has plateaued. So, again, if the number of listings coming on has slowed at the same time that the number of buyers has slowed, then the supply/demand curve will keep prices relatively where they are now.

We are seeing this playing out anecdotally on our listings. Two out of three of the new listings that we’ve listed since the start of the pandemic went under contract within a few days. They did not have to drop their prices and there were multiple offers.

3) Affordability is still at normal levels.

It is important to note that, even with this odd space we are in, houses are still within the normal range of affordability, at least valley-wide.

So, what does this mean? It means, as we often say, if you need a house buy a house. If you need to sell a house, sell a house. The real estate market is not the stock market and it does not behave the same way.

The governor is opening up some social distancing rules, and I predict that there will be some pent-up demand as people get back to normal. 

As we go in to the summer and people adapt more to social distancing rules, etc., we will see more (but not all) sectors of the economy regain at least some activity.

I believe very strongly that, as the economy begins to recover, and as people act on their pent-up energy, we will see the same scarcity in the Central Phoenix area that we were dealing with before the pandemic.

We just need to get through this together. Stay safe. Stay at a distance. Listen to scientists and doctors.

And, of course, call us if you have questions about how this may affect your particular plans. 602-456-9388.