Well, we go in to 2019 for our January Market Update with a little uncertainty about the market. Anecdotally, agents that I’ve spoken with have not seen the numbers of buyers coming to their doors that they would have liked. I have opined in the past that this may be a result of jitters over the election and the stock market.

But, January is a new month in a new year. So, we are all watching what happens. Thus, we check in with our friends at the Cromford Report:

“December was unusual in many ways. The most obvious was the low number of listings going under contract. We can see this from the 18.5% drop in listings under contract compared with the start of the month. Closings were strong for the first 2 weeks of December, slightly higher than in December 2017, but then slumped badly in the second half, ending the month almost 10% down on December 2017. December contained 20 working days in both 2017 and 2018 so we do not need to adjust for the calendar. In every respect, December was a weak month for demand, the weakest December we have seen since 2014 for sales (6,422 in Dec 2014). We have not seen listings under contract this low on January 1 since 2008. Clearly buyers are unenthusiastic about buying homes compared with just a few months ago.

Sellers are not showing much enthusiasm either, coming up with fewer new listings than last year. However the number of active listings is on an upward trend due to fewer of them going under contract than usual.

We have the Cromford® Supply Index at 66.3 at the start of 2019 telling us that we are missing about a third of the supply of active listings we would normally expect in a balanced market. The Cromford® Demand Index stands at 87.7, the lowest level since 2014 and implying we have about 12% less demand than we would expect in a balanced market. The combination of very low supply and low demand gives us a Cromford® Market Index of 132.3 with sellers having the edge. However the Contract Ratio of only 36.3 (45.4 last year at this time) tells us that we have a cooler market than usual.

Prices are still moving upwards but the annual appreciation rate has stopped rising and is now heading downward. It remains well above the general inflation rate, however. The monthly average price per sq. ft. is up 5.3% from a year ago while monthly median sales price is up 5.9%.

The market will be watching closely to see how many new contracts are signed in January. This will give us a reasonable idea of whether buyer enthusiasm is still waning or is starting to recover. Market distress is extremely low and most home owners have plenty of equity. The only real problem is a shortage of committed home buyers.”

So, what does this mean for you? Well, if you are a buyer, don’t wait for many months to buy, only to find out that higher interest rates have eaten away your buying power. If you are thinking of selling, let’s talk strategy.

Give us a call at 602-456-9388. Depending on when you purchased, you might want to wait, or you might want to get right in to the market.

Who knew 9 years ago, when we first started Phoestivus, that it would get this big? This year we had over 170 vendors and over 4,000 people on Night One and about 5,400 on Night Two. We raised over $20,000 for the farmer’s market.

We’ve grown, we’ve changed, we’ve even lost friends along the way (we miss you Monika Woolsey).

Our goal was always to support the Phoenix farmer’s market in an area of town that was a food desert to many, while supporting locally-owned businesses and the local farmers who supply it.

The stories that inspire most are those of people who use the market to launch their successful businesses. Look at Strawberry Hedgehog’s Tracy Perkins, who’s vegan-friendly soap business is now in Whole Foods.

The weekly market director, Sara Matlin, took the market to a whole new level. She makes the trains run on time. Were it not for her, we would not have grown so seamlessly.

In creating the market, I had one goal: that the market would be here for so long that nobody would know who started it. If we do it right, none of us will know if we reach that goal. But, we seem to be on the right track.

Our second goal was to focus on supporting locally-owned businesses. We believe that franchises and multi-national businesses, while sometimes great for their employees, can’t match the job creating power of locally-owned businesses. Local First Arizona will tell you that for every one dollar spent at a locally-owned business, 30% more stays in the state to create more jobs and support police, fire fighters and schools.

Last, but not least, we wanted to have fun –we mean the nerdy, goofy fun that you see in the Pheats of Strength, the Phoestivus Pole and the Airing of Grievances (Thank you Phoenix Storyteller’s Project for taking that to the next level). And who would forget Phreddy the Yeti and the ever-popular Hipster Santa.

Personally, I look forward to Phoestivus more than I do any other nights of the year. People are walking around, happy to see each other, warm in the glow of that feeling of community and connection that you only ever see in movies about the holidays. I feel like we are doing it here, while still being inclusive to all.

As we prepare for our tenth year, we want more of those ideas. We want more community participation. So, please drop a note to me through our contact page here, and let us know what you’d like to see in the future.

Again, thank you all and thanks again to all of our many sponsors! Please see below