Is the closing of Jobot Coffee in December the canary in the coal mine for the Roosevelt Row Arts District? While this closing was mostly a result of a dispute about rent, I see this as a regrettable result of costs going up for the long-time businesses and artists in our arts district downtown.

Source: Phoenix New Times

This is an area that was recognized in recent years as one of America’s best arts districts. But recently, the changes have been so drastic that people are questioning the future of arts in downtown.

As you drive south on 3rd St from McDowell, you no longer see the mish-mash of small structures and lots that used to be home to the arts. Now, you are met with a veritable canyon of apartments, which serve as a sterile gateway to downtown. They lack the affordable store-front space necessary for artists to thrive. They are over-built (there has been a 6 to 1 ratio of apartments to owner-occupied condos developed in Phoenix over the last two years), and they are too expensive.

We’ve also seen these developments squeezing local favorites. Art Haus is gone. The building that replaced it, with the help of APS almost unilaterally vetoed in-progress modifications by monOrchid to install a roof-top bar by moving electricity cables (unannounced) from one side of the dividing alleyway to the other. The wires would be a hazard to anybody seeking to enjoy a roof-top space because they are now within arm’s length reach of the rooftop space. So those plans were scraped and that money was lost.

It further hurt the community that, in a fit to undermine an arts district improvement plan that they saw as too personally expensive, a few businesses and their lobbyists at the Arizona Legislature torpedoed the plan while also making similar community improvement plans around the state virtually impossible.

So, this and other developments beg the question: can an arts district survive its own popularity? We know that three major groups drove the development of downtown over the last 20 years, making it a viable spot for ASU and others to expand. Those groups were the LGBT community, the arts community and historic preservationists.

Is it destined that any area that becomes popular like this will ultimately move out the people who made it popular? If so, where will they go? This thought has brought some of my friends to tears, who have worked for years to make downtown great. What of their vision, of the blood, sweat and personal treasure that they poured in to this area? Does it now belong to out-of-state apartment investors?

Or, is it possible as some of my friends maintain, that the city can support local artists and their business models?

Watch for public conversations about this in 2017. I don’t know yet where they will come from or who will lead them. But, I promise to report on them when they evolve. Could the canary in the coal mine spur positive changes?

We need to find a response to this trend as a community, or face losing that which makes us unique.

We are huge fans of the Desert Botanical Garden. We often send friends and clients who are moving to the valley to the garden to understand more about the beauty and sensitivity of our Sonoran desert.

So, we were thrilled to learn that in the latest round of ArtPlaceAmerica grants, the “Desert Botanical Garden will complete the design and construction of an 18-acre urban farm and amphitheater as a solution to the lack of access to nutritious food in South Phoenix. Building and programming the area’s first farmers’ market and community performance space, they will dismantle the stigma of farming for local residents by turning this food desert into an affordable, local-food oasis.”

As modern realtors, we know that the old mentality of scraping valuable habitat and spreading homes out in to the desert is counter-productive in the long term. The future is about smart density. part of that future also includes urban gardens. So, congratulations to our friends at the Desert Botanical Gardens for this new development.

As we do monthly, here’s a green cleaning tip of the month from our friends at Going Green House cleaning. We like their green cleaning tips and the fact that they make the choice to clean using all natural, non-toxic products. We like to think we are helping move the ball forward on sustainable living.

This month, April and her crew are extolling the virtues of one product, Dr. Bronner’s.

If you’ve been to an organic grocery store, you’ve probably seen rows of Dr. Bronner’s Castile soap, in a variety of scented mixtures, promising to have 18 different uses—and if you’re a devoted fan of the product, you know that there are MANY more than that.

Named after the olive oil based soaps that originated in Castile, Spain, Castile soap comes in liquid or bar form. It uses only vegetable oils like coconut, olive, hemp, and sometimes avocado, almond, or walnut oils instead of animal fats, so it is certified vegan.

Castile soap is also biodegradable and non toxic, making it a good friend for the environment. It’s also safe to use for pets and kids. If you’re particularly concerned about the heavy, toxic chemicals your current household cleaners and detergents contain and are looking for an all natural solution, this is a great place to start!

To mix up a batch of all-purpose cleaner that works great on countertops, toilets, and everything in between:

1. Choose your favorite Dr. Bronner Castile soap
2. Fill a spray bottle with water about ¾ of the way full
3. Add a ¼ cup of Dr. Bronner’s
4. If you want an anti-bacterial spray, add 15 drops tea tree oil
5. Fill the rest of the bottle with water
6. Finally, shake it up and it’s ready to make your home sparkle!

If you’re looking for a superb floor cleaner, with a fresh, but not overpowering smell, Dr. Bronner’s has a solution for that, too!

1. Choose your favorite Dr. Bronner Castile soap
2. Pour ½ cup of soap into a bucket
3. Dilute with 3 gallons of hot water

This all natural mop mixture is also what April and the Going Greenhouse gang use to make their client’s floors fresh and flawless!

For beautiful windows, try this recipe for window cleaner:

1. Add a tablespoon of Dr. Bronner’s into a quart of water in a spray bottle
2. Shake it up, and it’s ready to work it’s magic!
3. Follow up with a mixture of half water/half vinegar to prevent streaking

Use caution with Castile soap and vinegar, though. The more alkaline Castile soap mixing with the acidic vinegar can leave objects and surfaces with a white film that is difficult to remove. They also cancel each other’s potency if mixed together, so it’s best to use separately.

If this green cleaning tip hasn’t convinced you to ditch the harsh, unfriendly cleaners you may currently use, try it for yourself! You can purchase Dr. Bronner’s Castile soap at organic grocery stores like Whole Foods, Sprouts, or even at big box stores like Target.

I can tell you that we’ve tried this green cleaning tip

at home. We’ve had good results and I like the fact that we can control the scents of the soaps on our own, using extracts from mint, spearmint, tea tree oil, eucalyptus, and others. Its worth the effort to know that you are making a difference.

Real estate is like surfing. If you observe the waves long enough, you get to know the rhythms of the market. You can see how certain seasons advantage buyers vs sellers, or even when conditions might be better for new home buyers.

Have a look at this graph to illustrate. This is called the “contract ratio”. Its the ratio of all properties that actually sell and close, out of all of those listed each month.

For our purposes, the ratios represented in of this chart are not as important as the pattern you can see – the rhythms of the market. Notice that the percent of homes that sell and close tends to go down at about the same time every year: July – January. The percent goes up at about the same time every year: February – June. If you look closer, you will also see that Sept – Oct often stay very stable.

Why?

Well, more people are looking and purchasing from February to June. That means more buyers and more sellers. But, look. If you consider that most homes take 4-6 weeks to close from the time they are listed, then you can see that the homes listed in January represent the up-tick that you start to see each February.

The converse is true, too. If you are listing a home to sell in June, you have already crested that wave and fewer people are out looking for homes.

What I’ve observed by watching the rhythms of the market over the years is that you should list in January if you can. If you can list in the first half of the year, then aim for September. People tend to be back from vacation, and they get serious until Thanksgiving, when the tryptophan in their turkey puts them to sleep until about mid-January.

What you absolutely want to avoid doing, if you can, is listing in October or November. You will likely just accumulate days on market with fewer people out looking for homes.

Michelle and I have several new listings coming on in January and February. We know already that 2017 is supposed to see Phoenix as one of the busiest markets in the country. Now is the time to look (before interest rates go up) and now is the time to list (when people are the most active).

If you have questions about listing your home, give me a call at 602-456-9388. We can help you surf those market waves.

Your January Market Update finds the market generally healthy and likely to start the year strong, according to our friends at the Cromford Report.

“There is both good and bad news for first-time home buyers this month.  The good news is that there’s been a 22% increase in single family active listings asking between $175,000-$200,000 over the last 10 weeks, going from 1,065 to 1,295.  Current inventory is 10% higher than where it was in week 49 of last year, adding some much needed choice to a high demand price range.  The added supply is not universal across the valley; increases have been marked specifically in Buckeye, Surprise, Sun City, Peoria and Mesa.”

As you know, we do most of our work in Central Phoenix, North Phoenix, Downtown and East Phoenix (although we work everywhere in Maricopa County). The bad news for first time home buyers in the January Market Update is that this increase in affordable inventory is not as apparent in the sought-after areas of CenPho and downtown. We can only hope that this bubble of apartment building in CenPho will break and we will see some affordable owner-occupied developments in 2017.

Despite the bad news in this category, don’t give up. We know the area really well and we can point first time home buyers to the up-and-coming areas that are more affordable and undergoing redevelopment.

Back to Tina Tamboer at the Cromford Report:

“The bad news for home buyers is that supply overall is down 3.7% while the level of competing buyers is remaining seasonally consistent.  The Southeast Valley specifically has not seen the typical increase in supply that happens this time of year.  This indicates that the area will kick off 2017 with low supply just before the expected increase in buyer activity come February.  In this case, the cost of waiting to purchase will be a lack of choice and possibly having to compromise on the condition or location of the property they choose to buy.”

For Sellers in this January Market Update:

“Bad news for buyers usually translates into good news for sellers, especially after positive news reports of Realtor.com ranking Phoenix as the #1 projected real estate market in the country for 2017.  However, it’s still not a market to be overpriced regardless of the strong demand for homes.  Some price ranges have more competing listings than others, especially in areas such as North Phoenix, Mesa, Gilbert and Peoria where there is competition from new home subdivisions.  Permits for single family homes have been on the rise to accommodate the demand.  This provides more choice for buyers in those areas, balances out the market and keeps annual appreciation in check.  The areas projected to have the highest appreciation rates are those where there is a high level of fix and flip activity along with a more affordable price range under $175,000.”

In the end, we can help you navigate this new year –whether you are buying or selling. Just give Ken a call at 602-456-9388.