In my last post, we looked at the number of houses coming on the market and the number selling, as compared to previous years.

Here’s another interesting indicator: how many listings are cancelled after being on the market for a while.

“Listing cancellations remain very low in 2015 thus far at 11,248 year-to-date; 19% down from this time last year.  Only 3 years in the last 15 years have had a lower number of cumulative cancellations in week 30. 

Those years are 2005, 2013 and 2012.  2008 was the worst year by week 30 at 32,628, which is nearly triple today’s level.”

So, why so few cancellations in 2008? I suspect that it had to do with the fact that people felt like they had no other option than to sell. Many were in houses they could not afford. They had to sell, short sell or foreclose. Whereas in other years, people might have chosen to wait for another year for prices to rise. Their payments were in line with what they could afford, so they had options.

Also notice that the number of days on market (average) is a little lower than last year. So, this year they are selling. Prices are increasing slightly over last year and people are selling homes. I don’t see any indication that these price increases are irrational. However if interest rates rise later this year and buyers can’t get loans as easily, those prices may be forced to come down and this dynamic will change. If that happens, I don’t see major changes in 2015 –probably next year.

So, what does this mean for you? It means that it is a good time to list, especially as people return from summer vacation in about a month. It means that you might want to buy before those people return and enter the market.

Let’s look at your specific situation and build a strategy. Call me a 602-456-9388.

Info Source: The Comford Report

Its mid-year and time to take stock of where the market stands.

“Sales volume year-to-date so far in 2015 is 47,661 closings, up 8.8% from this week in 2014 but still 8.7% below 2013.

2006 and 2014 saw similar annual sales volume. 2015 has had 57% more closings than 2008, which was the infamous year prices crashed due to increasing foreclosure supply and decreased demand due to tightened lending standards.”

In other words, people in 2008 were listing them, but not closing. Whereas this year, they are listing them and closing them.

But, don’t take that strong activity to mean that we are heading toward another bubble. We’ve seen this year how there are not as many houses coming on the market as there were in 2008. This year’s price increases seem to be due to shortages, rather than people throwing houses on the market in reaction to a bubble.

That is why you saw 91,191 listings in July of 2008 but only 63,810 as of this month in 2015.  I suspect if prices continue to rise, more folks will be inspired to list their homes. But, we don’t seem to see that kind of irrational upward pressure right now.

So, what does this mean for you? It means that it is a good time to list, especially as people return from summer vacation in about a month. It means that you might want to buy before those people return and enter the market.

Let’s look at your specific situation and build a strategy. Call me a 602-456-9388.

Info Source: The Comford Report