Here is this week’s updated list of the best deals in the ‘hood.

1) This expertly updated ranch in CenPho (now only $149,500) is walking distance from Light Rail and convenient to all the CenPho attractions. You can walk to Lux, Pane Bianco, Copper Star and all the shopping on 7th. That’s heaven!

You should see the upgrades: triple-pane Pella windows in the living room, a block addition to the master bedroom, with bath and a lush back yard. This 2br/2ba home is a great first home, its roomy and move-in ready.

2) 2-Bedroom, 1.75-Bath Easy Livin’ Condo. You’ve heard me rant about this little 1950s complex. It is shady, inexpensive, picturesque and built as sturdy as a fallout shelter. This 1,100 square foot place came on the market last week at $41,500. I’ve not seen many people look at it. It does not help that the carpet needs to be ripped out and replaced (what were those people eating?). But I think this price should come down in to the high $30s. I’d rip out the carpet for that price!

3) 1-Bedroom, 1-Bath Starter Condo. OK, there is a theme here, I know. But these places are so inexpensive, it blows my mind. They are listing this one, at 846 square feet, at $31,000. I’m telling you right now, I think this place should go for about $3,000 less. It is HUD-owned, so they have a different bidding process. I can help you with that. But if this is your first property, you can’t beat the price. Your monthly costs would be less than $500, assuming you are paying a loan back to your uncle Albert. (You are not likely to get a home loan for this low, so these are cash deals only.)

Call me at 602-456-9388 for more information.

The Arizona Republic reported this morning that housing prices are due to drop again by 10%; such that they could be cheaper next summer than they are today.

Now, I can’t read tea leaves any more than Lady GaGa would be seen wearing a polyester polo shirt from WalMart.

But there are parts of this story that you should, you know, take with a grain of salt the size of a BP oil spill.

Here is why:

#1. Using nation-wide statistics and applying them to Phoenix is like saying that the average elevation in Phoenix is 3,000 feet because that is the national average. (Note: I don’t know if there actually is a national elevation average, but you get my point.)

#2. This is not the first time that I’ve seen this narrative from the Arizona Republic. In fact, you can pretty much count on seeing an article in the next couple weeks hinting at how there might be a rebound. You know, when I was younger I had a friend who’s dog got so excited every time we came over he could not decide whether to run around or eat his food. So, he spent a half an hour trying to do both. Kinda reminds me of this.

#3. They cite Mike Orr of the Cromford Report, whom I respect as an analyst, saying that prices will go down in August. I think that is probably true. But did you notice how they jump from Mike’s very local and specific analysis of one month ahead, to Moody’s very speculative analysis of next year’s prices in other cities?

#4. CenPho is not Vegas. While I work all over the valley, you know that I spend most of my time on historic neighborhoods in the central corridor. I am not seeing the same trends here that you see elsewhere. CenPho is marked by people who want to get out of the suburbs and experience a more diverse and interactive lifestyle. The price of fuel will continue to go up and people are preparing for that and choosing to live closer to work. So, this article should not lump every community together.

#5. The article says that 13% of mortgages nation-wide are late by one payment. That may be true. I don’t know. But they don’t discount how many of those folks will find work by next year and they present a worst case scenario.  I don’t know about you, but when I’m making decisions, I want to know a range of likely outcomes.

So, I don’t know what will happen 6 months from now any more than these folks do. But what I can see is that more people are calling me every day wanting to find a house. They recognize that prices are still historically low, rates are under 5% in most cases and houses are not staying on the market very long.

On thing to keep in mind: buying a house is not like playing the stock market. Don’t buy if you just want to sell tomorrow. Buy because you need a place to live and you want to build equity over time.

If you think you will stay in Phoenix for the next three years, then I would definitely feel confident that you can buy something now and probably be able to sell such that you “pay yourself rent.” Prices are so low now that the likelihood of prices going up is much greater than what Chicken Little is telling us.