Y’all know that I dig The Cromford Report.
And not just because I respect Michael Orr, who founded The Cromford Report and who has been chief analyst and editor since its inception in 2006. The fact that Mike holds a master’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Oxford, has been investing in real estate since 1976, and is director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, should say something about his credentials.
I’ve mentioned to you in the past that the data in The Cromford Report™ comes from public records and under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) is another source of confidence. Reputable organizations like The New York Times and Get Your PHX regularly refer to The Cromford Report for daily real estate market insight in the Greater Phoenix residential market should come as no surprise. What the magic soup, secret spices, and mathematical wizardry is that makes the data into the graphs, charts, index, etc. at The Cromford Report™ is a mystery, but the results are certifiable.
I first wrote about The Cromford Report in March 2011. I’ve been citing it more frequently, lately, and I’ll be doing more so in the months to come. If you are a real estate investor in Phoenix, you need to subscribe to The Cromford Report.
The Market Index
If there’s one thing you really need to pay attention to on The Cromford Report, it’s The Market Index. If the market gauge is over 100, it’s a seller’s market. Below 100 is a buyer’s market.
Look at the Market Index for today.
This Index is really handy. Based on this number, well over 100, are we in a seller’s or a buyer’s market?
If you follow The Cromford Index (or you’ve been reading my posts), you’ll know that number has been on the rise for the last year.
Historically, you can see what things looked like before and compare it with today.
Let’s back up to April 2005 and take a look at the Market Index was in context of the years leading up to 2010.
This is Central Phoenix, all areas and types of residential homes, between 2002 and 2009…
At the peak, in April 2005, the Market Index was way, way over 100, making it whose market? (I know. You don’t even have to look; some of you may not want to). Right now, today, the index is 160-ish. We’ve been seeing this coming for a long time.
Here’s the skinny.
This is a VERY HOT seller’s market.
It will not always be that way. If you’re thinking of selling, you have to get in there now. It’s been going up since late last year, but do not assume prices will go up forever. We know they don’t. We know they won’t. It’s so easy to lull yourself into a false sense, especially when you don’t track invaluable resources like The Cromford Report.
“If I just wait 6 months, the prices will be really high” they say.
Yeah, and maybe, if everyone waits six month, there will be no inventory, and the bubble will burst. Or, maybe, interest rates will go up, and then the bubble bursts.
Move on it now. Contact me when you’re ready. I’ve got your back.
I can be reached on my cell at 602-456-9388 or via email Ken@GetYourPHX.com