The Cromford Report folks track household formation to see how many new buyers are coming on the market.
I think its an interesting story for Phoenix, in particular. After the recession, we saw young couples choosing to rent longer, or even live with family for a while. Add that to the fact that this new generation of home buyer is coming on the market with higher levels of debt than ever before, and we see the makings of some serious downward pressure on the sub-$200k market.
However, and there is always a however, CenPho and historic neighborhoods are a little different. Well, in regards to sub-$200k, all of the valley is in the same boat. See in my previous post why we have a shortage, sub $200k. But, its particularly difficult in the urban dense areas because more people are moving in to those areas.
I also covered a few months ago how I believe we are over-building apartment complexes at the peril of owner-occupied properties. There is a six to one ratio of apartment to owner-occupied being built in downtown. That seems way off.
I think we will have options for young couples to own their own home if they want it, but we need to build more in-fill and the city needs to find a way to help. With 43% of the land mass of Phoenix comprised of empty lots, and many of those owners holding to speculate, we need to get some of those properties in the hands of in-fill developers without the prices being prohibitively high.
Watch this trend if you are looking to buy in the next year to year-and-a-half.
If you are looking for more information, please call me at 602-456-9388.