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Usually, you see images of our listings in this section. However, we sold all of our listings!

Its a nice problem to have, but it sure does leave this section of the newsletter a little barren.

So, I would like to ask you to do one thing for us to bring back those nice photos.

Please support our Charity Referral Network.

You may have seen the following phrase on my email signature or in the Clark Report: “You refer, we donate. Call me today to find out how we can support your favorite charity. We appreciate your referrals!”

This is our attempt to focus positive attention on those charities that you care about, and which do so much good work here in Phoenix.

Here is how it works. If you send us a referral for a home sale or purchase, and that transaction closes, we will make a donation to the charity of your choice. We will post on our blog and on Facebook that your referral was instrumental in making that donation happen.

It is as simple as that. Thank you!

Please give us a call today at 602-456-9388 for more.

As we do each month, we check in with the Cromford Report for their monthly update. Here’s your July 2017 Market Update.

For the monthly period ending June 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $151.10 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.4% from the $150.45 we now measure for May 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $151.94, with a 90% confidence range of $148.90 to $154.98. We were correct in forecasting a rise, but the actual rise was only about half as big as forecast.

On June 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $154.91, up 0.6% from the reading for May 15.

Supply has been falling quite sharply in the last few weeks while demand is little changed. However, we will shortly be entering the third quarter, a period famous for weaker pricing. This is because the luxury market loses a lot of sales volume during the hottest months, whereas the rest of the market slows to a lesser extent. This is a seasonal effect and does not indicate underlying weakness. We would expect the upward price trend to resume once we get to the end of September.

Now back to you, Ken.

Thanks, Tina.

So, here’s our more anecdotal view of the July 2017 Market Update for Central Phoenix and the historic neighborhoods. We are seeing property prices continue to move up in CenPho at a faster clip than the county-wide numbers. The chart here is for all prices. When I looked at different price brackets, the move remained.

In short, people want to live in CenPho. But you knew that, didn’t you?

We don’t believe that this means sellers can price absurdly high and expect to get what they want. Two of our recent listings downtown did have small price drops off of the original list price. That’s normal.

The Cromford Index continues to indicate a strong seller’s market, stronger than the last two years. This is, in large part, due to the shortage of available homes. You’ve heard me recently complain about the over-built rental market. Some of those projects could have been condos. This is the result.

As we often say, your decision to buy or sell should be about need rather than a desire to play the market. We can help you make the best decision with market-based data and experience.

Call me (Ken) at 602-456-9388 and let’s chat.

The green cleaning tip for July 2017 from our friends at GoingGreenHouse Cleaning is all about air quality. After all, it’s summer time and with kids home from school we have a lot going on inside our homes.

Did you know that indoor air quality can be two to five times more polluted than the air outside? There are a wide variety of toxic chemicals lurking in your home and we often don’t think about all of the carcinogens that are swarming around in our air —from the cleaning products we use, candles, toiletries, clothing, and even the furniture inside our home, we are constantly polluting the air inside our home.

The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that we spend approximately 90% of our time indoors. Arizona summers are HOT and can be quite brutal. As summer creeps up on us we tend to spend more and more time indoors. Why not protect that air the best that we can?

Poor air quality can threaten your family’s health, so it’s important to keep things out of your home that cause pollution and ensure that your home is well-ventilated.  Here are a few ways that you can ensure you are being proactive this summer when it comes to the air inside your home:

1. Indoor plants

So, how do houseplants clean the air? Plants absorb some of the particulates from the air at the same time that they take in carbon dioxide, which is then processed into oxygen through photosynthesis. But that’s not all, microorganisms associated with the plants are present in the potting soil, and these microbes are also responsible for much of the cleaning effect . Here are a few examples of good air purifying plants:

Garden Mum: In NASA research, garden mums were found to be a air-purifying champion. They remove ammonia, benzene, formaldehyde, and xylene from your homes air. Plus they are cheap and readily available at any garden store.

Aloe Vera: Aloe Vera leaves are full of a jelly-like liquid that is chocked full of vitamins, enzymes, amino acids, and other compounds that have wound-healing, antibacterial, and anti-inflammatory properties. So as well as being a great resource for your medicine cabinet (think burns, scrapes, bites, etc) Aloe Vera also removes formaldehyde from the air.

Spider Plants: Shown to remove formaldehyde and xylene from air. They are super easy to grow indoors but need bright sunlight. 

2. Beeswaxcandles

Regular paraffin candles are petroleum derived and can release chemicals like benzene, toluene, soot and other chemicals into the air. These types of candles do more harm than good for indoor air quality and should be avoided. Pure Beeswax Candles, on the other hand, burn with almost no smoke or scent and clean the air by releasing negative ions into the air. These negative ions can bind with toxins and help remove them from the air.

3. Salt lamps

Salt lamps are another natural way to clean indoor air. Have you ever seen a salt rock lamp or do you own one without knowing exactly what it does? Salt crystal lamps, similar to beeswax candles, emit negative ions into the atmosphere which restore and neutralize air quality. Our homes and offices are filled with electrical appliances and electronics (televisions, computers, fluorescent lighting, microwaves, heaters, air-conditioners, etc.) all of which emit positive ions. Positive ions are known to reduce our energy levels. Balancing positive and negative ions also help reduce airborne infections.

4. Bamboocharcoal

Another natural air cleaning option for your cleaning tip for July 2017 is bamboo charcoal. Charcoal can have a toxin-removing effect on the air. Use bamboo charcoal in burlap bags in you house. They work wonders for odor removal and removing toxins from the air.

5. Essential oils

Multiple studies have shown that diffusing essential oils actually kills mold and mildew. Lavender, eucalyptus and tea tree oil all have powerful disinfecting properties that will combat air-borne bacteria and also dust mites, as well. Simply put a few drops into an essential oil diffuser and diffuse away.

Keep your air pure this summer and rest assured that your family is safe at home!

cleaning tip for July 2017

For your June 2017 Market Update, we check in again with the Cromford Report who tell us, in short, that the market is chugging along at about the same upward climb that we’ve been experiencing thus far this year.

“For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $150.42 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.1% from the $150.25 we now measure for April 15.  We were correct in forecasting last month that the average $/SF would rise less quickly, but after an extremely strong rise between March and April we saw a very small increase over the past month.

On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $153.97, up 1.3% from the reading for April 15. So although last month’s rise was pretty small, we are still expecting a respectable increase in prices over the next 31 days.

Beyond those 31 days we would expect to see 3 months of price weakness as the third quarter sales mix tends to include fewer high end homes than the rest of the year. However there is no sign of supply and demand converging and the overall long term trend is still upwards.”

Price per square foot for Cenpho, 12-month moving average

I was on the phone with Tina Tamboer at the Cromford Report this week, speaking about our predictions for 2018 for the June 2017 Market Update. As you recall, I was concerned earlier this year that emigration patterns could have a impact on the market. But, as Tina points out, if people begin to leave Arizona, they won’t do it overnight. It is still too early to tell whether there could be some affect on the market.

We continue to hear rumblings of a market correction in 2018. But, most of what I hear is a “flattening” of about 3%. Well, we’ve seen that growth in the last year, so we are not talking about the type of correction that is likely to result in major losses for home owners who purchased some years ago.

It might mean, however, that if you are waiting for home prices to reach 2007 peak levels in 2018, you might have to wait a few more years.

CenPho Price Per Square Foot, 3-month moving average

In the Central Phoenix and historic districts, both the 3-month and 12-month moving averages for price per square foot are strong. People want to live downtown. So, if you are looking to purchase, it is still a good time to do it. If there is a 3% correction in 2018, that won’t even account for the price difference between December of 2016 and today. But, if there is no price correction, then you are looking at even more expensive homes in this land-locked area with no new construction for owner-occupiers. (Thanks, over-built apartment market.)

If you need to put together a strategy to purchase, give us a call at 602-456-9388.

Our friends at the Cromford Report give us the county-wide scoop for this May 2017 Market Update, as they do every month.

Supply is even further below last year than it was last month, both in total active listings and in active listings with no contract.

The monthly sales rate is down over 6% from last month, but this is a very unfair comparison. March had 23 working days and April, because it had a weekend at both ends, only had 20. With 13% fewer working days we could easily have seen sales drop a lot more than 6%, so demand remained in strong shape throughout April. Sales were up 3% from April 2016, but in 2016 April had 1 extra working day, so that again is a pretty strong result.

Sellers remain in charge of the market in most sectors and price is responding accordingly. The average sales price per sq. ft. is our preferred method of measuring prices and it is up over 7% from last year at this time.

Sales are extremely hampered by lack of supply below $200,000, but above $200,000 supply is more free flowing and sales are up by very large percentages from 2016.

So in summary almost the whole market is humming along with all cylinders firing. However there is little sign that it is going to move up a gear from here.

The Cromford® Market Index appears to be making little effort to surpass its recent peak of 147.5 thanks to a very slight weakening in some demand indicators (including listings under contract). We are at a point where the seller remains in firm control but the seller’s advantage is no longer growing stronger.

Anecdotally for this May 2017 Market Update, we’ve seen a slight slowing in the number of showings in all listings, as the year progresses. I would hate to speculate as to why that could be –anything from national political uncertainty to local unhappiness with the available supply.

But in the end, when we see slight shifts like this, we suggest you watch the market for other indicators of changes. There could be a shift brewing.

We have already opined that, if you are thinking of selling, then 2017 is probably the best time to do it. We are over-due for a market correction in Arizona, and that may put downward pressure on house prices by early 2018.

So, the take-away? If you are thinking of selling, let’s get a strategy together. If you are thinking of buying, you might consider taking a little more time building up cash reserves so you can bring more to bear to your next purchase.

If you need to do both, well, we’d better get a cup of coffee and talk. Please call at 602-456-9388.

Our friends at the Cromford Report paint a picture for this April Market Update of a stable, but upward-trending price line, probably fueled by a reduction in supply.

This may be why we all keep getting those annoying form letters in the mail offering to purchase our homes. (But we all know that those buyers are just fishing for people willing to sell their homes at a discount, don’t we?)

Anecdotally, for this April Market Update, we see lots of buyers coming to us. We’ve also had a fair number of sellers talking to us about selling. Not all are pulling the trigger, so there might be some hesitancy on the selling side of the equation.

There could be many reason for that. Despite record stock market highs, folks might be a little uncertain about what is coming next, and whether they should sell now or wait.

Anyway, so sayeth Cromford:

“Supply is significantly down from last year, especially in terms of active listings that are not in UCB or CCBS status. A drop of 12% is not to be sneezed at and makes life hard for most buyers.

The monthly sales rate is very strong, up almost 11% from last year, though this year over year growth is a little less than we saw last month. Surprisingly, we are not seeing the same growth in pending listings or in listings under contract. These are running close to last year’s numbers.

Pricing continues to advance, though not at any alarming rate. In fact the median sales price is unchanged from last month. This just shows one of the disadvantages of medians – they tend to cluster at round numbers, like $230,000, and resist moving by small amounts. Our more reliable indicator, average $/SF indicates an appreciation rate of 6.1%, better than last month’s 4.8%.”

Interest rates are on the way up!

We’ve been hearing talk of it for a while, but now its probably going to be a reality — not once, but maybe three times in the next 18 months.

So, what does this do to the price of a home? As you can guess, a lot!

For instance, if you buy a $200,000 house at 4.5% interest with a 5% down payment, your monthly payment (before taxes and insurance) would be $962. The same house at 5% interest would cost $1,019 per month.

That extra $57 per month difference may not seem like much. However, that is $684 per year or $20,520 over the life of the loan!

I don’t know about you, but I can think of a few things that I could do with that money. There are a few countries on my bucket list that I’d like to visit and I don’t want interest rates to keep me from going.

Another way to look at it is that in order to have the same payment every month that you had at 4.5% interest, you could only afford a house that costs $189,000 at 5% interest.

So, what does this mean? It means that you want to consider getting in to the market before interest rates go up.

It also means that you probably want to act before both prices and interest rates go up, which they are doing now. That is to be avoided!

Further, we’ve been hearing news stories that the Federal Reserve bank may be thinking of raising interest rates multiple times in the next 18 months or so. If prices in Phoenix continue to go up at the same time these interest rates are going, that could be a problem for you.

What’s the take-away? If you can buy now, you might want to make it happen.

Give me a call. I’m more than happy to help you navigate the market: 602-456-9388.

Spring is almost upon us and for a lot of folks that means time to organize and freshen up their home after a long winter. Now, before you start breaking out all your cleaning supplies, let me give you several reasons why switching to green cleaning products is the way to go this spring!

1. Healthy Home – Chemicals will no longer absorb into the skin or be breathed in. No longer breathing in harsh chemical cocktails from your typical household cleaners can reduce the risk of asthma, which is one of the most common chronic illnesses.
2. Pure Environment – Using greener methods to clean, reduces the pollutants released into the environment. This means less contaminated water and air. Most green cleaning solutions are made from recyclable packaging which also reduces waste.
3. Safe Products – Typical household cleaners pose the risk of chemical burns to skin and eyes. Green cleaning products are non corrosive and have stricter standards regarding toxicity, combustibility, and skin absorption.
4. Better Air Quality – Strong chemical cocktails come with a strong chemical odors. Green products usually include soft, pleasant smells, often from natural essential oils.
5. Less Expensive – Most green cleaning methods can be made right at home from ingredients you already have in your pantry. Why go out and buy expensive products when you have what you need at home?
6. Knowledge of Ingredients – Government regulations do not require ingredients be listed on cleaning products. When you’re making your own green cleaners at home, you know exactly what you’re using.

These are just a few of the many reasons people are switching to green cleaners. Not only is it better for the environment, but for your and your family’s health! So, before you start checking things off your spring cleaning checklist this season, consider cleaning GREEN!

I should also ad that it’s kinda fun to make your own products to clean around the house. I never even thought about it, but it kinda is!

We love and use our friends at Going Green House for their good work and their tips. We use them for our clients, too!

Its that time of month when we remember to check our fire alarm batteries, we clean out the gutters after all the rain and, oh yeah, we check in with our friends at the Cromford Report.

Around mid-month, they saw a sales $/SF of $147.97 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up a very strong 2.0% from the $145.07 we now measure for January 15.

They caution, however, “This may sound like a big difference but the monthly average $/SF can change quite a bit over a short period. For example between January 16 and January 21 it rose from $144.88 to $147.00, a change of 1.5% in just 6 days.”

This seems to track (in the very short term, at least) with a small down-tick in “month’s supply of homes.” In other words, if no more homes came on the market today, how many months would it take us to exhaust the inventory? Supply goes down, prices go up.

In the CenPho market, we are seeing a small up-tick in days-on-market. I think this is probably still reflects those folks who listed around the holidays and just accumulated days-on-market, while everybody else ate Thanksgiving dinner and celebrated the New Year, nary a thought of buying a home.

Anecdotally, we are still seeing strong interest from people who want to sell their homes and we are constantly getting calls from new buyers. Over-all right about where we would expect to be this time of year.

See below for the monthly info-graphic from the Cromford Report Folks.

If you are looking for more statistical information for your home sale or purchase, hit us up at 602-456-9388.

Your February Market update indicates a continued strong market with sellers having the advantage as we go in to the busiest time of year.

Here’s what our friends at the Cromford Report have to say:

“New listings have been arriving at a slower rate than last year, adding to the problems faced by buyers. Although the overall number of active listings excluding UCB increased by 2.4% during the month, this is an unusually low growth for January and many areas have experienced an unexpected decline in listings over the past 31 days.

This imbalance between supply and demand is true throughout most of the low and mid price ranges, but is less of a factor in the higher price areas, particularly in the outer locations. While this imbalance persists, it is likely to lead to further price rises. We saw a substantial 1.1% rise in the average price per sq. ft. during last month, but the median sales price remained flat for the second month. The average price per sq. ft. is a better reflection of what is going on.”

Anecdotally in CenPho and the historic neighborhoods, we are continuing to see a strong seller’s market, as well as new listings. There is a little dip in prices in the chart below, but it is yet to be seen as to whether this is the hold-over from the end of the year. I would guess that it is more of a blip because the contract ratios are still moving upward, as we would expect this time of year.

In short, if you are looking purchase, you will want to either get on it now or wait for at least a year.

If you are thinking of selling, 2017 is definitely the time to do it.

By the way, we also work in other areas of town. We do this analysis for CenPho and the historic neighborhoods because we get most requests for that analysis.

If you would like us to analyze the market for you in any other area of Maricopa county, please give us a call at 602-456-9388.

Handy-dandy charts for your February Market Update are below:

The market analysis shows a small shift in prices, but probably not significant.

The seller’s advantage continues upward as the year begins.

The number of listings continues to climb. Will that eventually put a downward pressure on prices?

Contract Ratios -the ratio of homes that close in any given month, of all of those on the market of any status