I want to share this great post with you (especially all of you who tell me that prices are still going down). This is unashamedly lifted directly from the John Hall web site because I think they explain it best:
How can some experts say Phoenix home values are going up and others say they are going down?
Don’t answer that…yet. First we need to remove some variables.
Let’s pull out the possibility that we’re talking about two different markets – like nationally vs locally. For this question we’ll only analyze the Greater Phoenix real estate market.
We also need to remove the possibility that we’re looking at different data sets – like townhouses vs single family homes. So let’s look at the exact same data – from the exact same system – filtered almost identically.
Next we want to make sure both statements are from similarly educated individuals. I tell you what, to remove all doubt – I’ll say them both. Home values in Phoenix are going up. Home values in Phoenix are going down.
Now that we’ve removed said variables – which statement is more correct?
Uno momento – real quick let me show you a couple of charts from the Cromford Report to help you get the more correct answer.
Here is a chart showing the annual median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.
Prices are going down-right? This next chart is showing the monthly median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.
Prices are going up!! It’s hard to see the exact numbers, but hopefully you can make out the trends. If you only look at the top chart (Annual Median) it would be correct to say values are coming down.
However, if you look at the second chart (aka monthly median). You can see that values bottomed in April and have been bumping along since.