As of the writing of this newsletter, the Cromford Report has not come out with its review of April, which usually comes out about now.
But we have some data coming from mid-April. In short, we are seeing prices up since March, but still lower than they were this time last year.
The number of active listings is up from last year, but trending down since the beginning of this year. That is why you are starting to see quicker offers coming in for those homes. The demand for homes seems to be somewhat inelastic, despite high interest rates.
From the folks at Cromford: “For the monthly period ending April 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $279.64 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.4% from the $273.05 we now measure for March 15.”
“On April 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $301.22, up 0.3% from the reading for March 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.3% normal, 0.1% in REOs and 0.5% in pre-foreclosures. This is similar to the last 2 months. We still have very few foreclosures appearing.”
So, what does this mean for you?
Well, if you are selling, be sure to spruce up your place and put your best foot forward. These are not the days where you can sell anything in any condition. But if you present well and price well, you will get offers.
If you are buying, you might want to get in before the Federal Reserve announces that it will no longer raise interest rates, which we think will come in the next few months. We think that, as soon as they do that, lots of buyers will re-enter the market with the plan to grab what they can and refinance in a couple years.
People are still moving to Arizona and that won’t change any time soon.
Cross your fingers. Forecasts for May indicate that we may have more cool days that we expected a couple weeks ago. So, there’s time to get out and see those May Attractions. Plus, I’m sharing some of the great reads that could occupy your attention at the pool.
The Smoking Gun Continues to Smoke. For many of us, we’ve known for decades that the big fossil fuel companies intentionally misrepresented the danger of global warming. And evidence of that has dribbled out over the years through discovery in various lawsuits. But now, we have a peer-reviewed study from Harvard and the Rockefeller Family Fund that assesses the known projections of Exxon going back three decades.
Practical Art’s 15th Anniversary. We’ve been fans of Practical Art for years. We did special events with them over the years, way way back when they were new to the scene. So, it’s exciting to see their 15th Anniversary Art Edition with lots of beautiful and accessible art to choose from. They are located uptown, just north of Camelback and Central.
Revisiting Cadillac Desert. This seminal work spanned two centuries of, corruption and short-sightedness of water policy all across the growing United States, but primarily in the arid desert Southwest. (See this short video from the documentary to get a taste.) It’s a biggie. At over 600 pages, it leaves no stone unturned. I’ve had it on my shelf for two decades and only got through the beginning. I had to admit defeat and download the audio book. The 27 hours of listening is still engaging. As we in Arizona have been told by the Bureau of Water Reclamation to radically cut our use of Colorado river water by 25%, it is worth diving in to this one. If nothing else, watching the documentary will give you an idea of the mentality of decision makers that got us here and what it would take to save our skins.
Kickback with the Locals. Local First Arizona is hosting an event on May 11th at Barcoa, downtown, to link up local artists, makers, growers, foodies, trendsetters, entrepreneurs, and local advocates. Brought to you by Local First Arizona | LocalBuzz | Barcoa | XICO Gallery. The evening will be hosted by Marshall Shore, the Hip Historian! in a century-old building in Downtown Phoenix. Discover tons of local businesses and learn how to officially become a Localist through Local First Arizona and learn about Pollyn – a hyper-local creator marketplace by LocalBuzz. Guests can sip from an exclusive Mezcal tasting at Barcoa Agaveria while enjoying the action of the print workshop in XICO Inc. gallery and studio.
Third Fridays. Little-known fact outside of downtown: Third Fridays is like the adult swim of art Fridays. That will be May 19th this month. If you get overwhelmed by the masses of people at First Fridays, you will enjoy the room to breath on Third Fridays. For many people, it’s the only way to experience art downtown (and on Grand Ave) these days.
We have this new listing to share with you, and possibly another coming on in the next couple weeks.
Caution: this new listing went live on the MLS just last night and we already have four showings. I know that is anecdotal evidence, but it supports the market data we have seen from The Cromford Report that indicates that last year’s relative slump in the market may be clearing out.
This home has made great use of space, with a master bedroom on the second floor and three rooms on the first floor. So, whether you plan to have room mates, family members, or just yourself in the home, you will have plenty of space.
The kitchen and living room are spacious, with a separate dining room. The back yard has been recently landscaped and there is a whole lot of extra space for a garden or storage.
I’ll tell you that from my perspective as an urban garden enthusiast, the extra space in the back yard where the city returned the ally easement to the owner would make a great garden. It is shielded from the harshest morning and evening sun in parts of the year, but it would get plenty of sun in the winter.
Also, note the recently updated electrical panel and roof, bath and kitchen.
The home is well-maintained in a centrally-located neighborhood. It’s close to the freeway, but not too close and just up the street from shopping, restaurants and entertainment.
Let us know right away if you’d like to get in to see it. It may be gone before next week!
Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month Donna tells us about the influence of Ruth Freethy’s dance instruction on the growth of the arts in Phoenix.
Phoenix, despite rumors otherwise, has always been a cultural oasis in the desert. Theater, brass bands, opera, concerts, vaudeville, dance, and various recitals have entertained Phoenicians for well over 100 years. And today, if one searches carefully, the number of options every day is staggering.
But when it comes to dance, my favorite is ballet probably because my mother started me off before I began kindergarten. Thus, when a recent posting on Facebook mentioned the first ballet studio in Phoenix, I knew there was a story.
Ruth S. Freethy arrived in Phoenix with her husband and infant daughter Dorothy probably in early 1926. In her early 20s, Freethy was eager to start teaching what she most loved: ballet. Within a short time after the family’s arrival, Freethy located a spot at the LDS Recreation Hall which is now the site of the Lath House at Historic Heritage Square. Classes began in the Russian ballet method on October 1,1926.
Freethy’s ballet school must have been popular because after three months at her first location, the school moved to a house at 60 W. Roosevelt. While ballet was the primary focus of Freethy’s School of Dancing, she also offered ballroom dance lessons as well as tap dance.
Of course, there were student presentations. In May 1927, some of Freethy’s students even became the “second bill” at the Rialto Theater. And after the Orpheum opened in 1929, Freethy and the Phoenix Phantoms, her high school students, often performed on that stage.
Business continued to boom and Freethy and her husband, now the school’s business manager, purchased a lot at 16 W. Cypress. Now Freethy could design a studio to fit her needs and needs of her ever-expanding School of Dancing and no longer worry about having to change locations.
An article described the studio as 2000 sq ft with maple flooring, bars at different heights for the younger students and the older ones, and plenty of light. The same article described the new studio as “the best equipped and most complete school of dancing in the southwest.” And the beautiful brick building painted cream was also the home of the Freethys.
In its spacious new home, the Ruth Freethy School of Dancing blossomed. Freethy’s dancers performed before various women’s groups and on stage wherever one was available. For a brief time, performances were held in the former West High School Auditorium.
Some of Freethy’s students continued to dance after leaving the school. A few though, including Freethy’s daughter Dorothy, joined the studio as instructors.
Ruth Freethy finally retired in 1959 after her dancers and herself presented more than 30 recitals and benefit dances before Phoenix audiences. Queries from former students resulted in this comment from Donna Ballard: “I attended [The Freethy School of Dancing] around 1958 when I took tap and ballet. I loved the wintergreen candies she gave us all at the end of the lesson. She was very kind to this pudgy little dancer and always made me feel special.”
Donna Reiner is the co-author of three books about Phoenix history.
I’ve not done one of these curated lists of events, articles and various things for many months.
I’ve been looking forward to getting back to doing it.
If you feel these are valuable, please let me know. Pretty please.
Rooftop Easter Brunch. On April 9th from 9am to 2pm, the Rennaissance Hotel will host it’s 2nd Annual Rooftop Easter Brunch. Easter Brunch comes complete with bottomless mimosas, an ocean bar with oysters, shrimp, crab, ceviche, and more, carving stations for Easter ham and prime rib, omelet and pasta action stations, salads, desserts…and the menu goes on. For the kids and kids at heart, Easter egg hunts, cookie decorating, and kids drink table. Adults $85, Kids 5-12 $50, Children under 5 FREE. Don’t let the egg roll over the edge. That’s all I’m saying.
Keep Your Money Where Your Home Is. On Wednesday, April 12th, Local First is hosting this meet and greet with community banks. Even if you don’t own a business, this is valuable. About 10 years ago, I finally wriggled my way free of Wells Fargo. The Great Recession and being a member of Local First showed me the value of joining a local credit union. But, its not easy to get free, especially if you have more than one business account. This is a great first step.
Is a Boycott Free Speech? Starting at about minute 15 in this On the Media podcast, you can learn about how a little-watched court case could result in deciding that boycotts are not free speech. (The Supreme Court decided decades ago that boycotts are free speech.) In at least one appellate court district in America, if you call for a boycott of a company, you could be sued. In other words, we could live in a country where dark money is free speech, but boycotting businesses that refuse to serve black people could land you in court. The title of the episode is Indicted, in case the link, above does not work.
Inspirational Ikebana with Ping Wei. On April 16th, learn Ikebana, traditional Japanese flower art, outside in the beauty of the Japanese Friendship Garden of Phoenix. Led by master Ikebana teacher, Ping Wei, you will learn essential Japanese flower arranging techniques, aesthetics and the meanings of flowers in order to make your own arrangement. $50.
Tour the Historic Orpheum Theater on April 18th. The Orpheum Theatre is a fully-restored 1929 atmospheric theatre complete with a disappearing Mighty Wurlitzer Theatre Organ! Guided tours of the theatre include all public and many non-public areas and offer visitors a glimpse behind the scenes of a movie palace. All regular tours last approximately 60 minutes. Free. 12:00 PM & 1:30 PM.
Earth Day, April 22nd. There are several Earth Day Events going on. See the official Phoenix event at this link. The Phoenix Zoo has its own events. See here for that. More than going to an event, I recommend you check out the official Earth Day website, which details simple things that you can do to reduce the damage to the earth, and thus ourselves.
Localist Open House. Many years ago, Local First was very smart to create an alliance of people who support local businesses. That way you don’t have to feel like you are a business in order to be involved in the movement. Localists get special tours of locations and businesses that most people never see, and they get to socialize and network with like-minded people. You know…community. The next Localist Open House is on April 27th at 6pm in downtown Phoenix.
Voter Choice AZ Speaker Training. If you, like me, are a fan of Ranked Choice Voting, a way that you can help us get it on the ballot is to join the speakers’ training. There are two trainings coming up on April 10th and April 17th. They are on Zoom, so you can participate from your home in your PJs if you so desire. You can learn the best ways to talk about it, so you can join the speakers’ bureau. Speakers address all kinds of social or political groups. I’ve never seen a group do such an effective job of building it’s grassroots support. Learn more about this crucial election reform here.
We keep hearing news of a market in distress, albeit an odd kind of distress where high interest rates are pushing historically-high prices slowly down.
But that’s not the case, according to our friends at the Cromford Report:
“After 200% Increase, Supply Still Nearly 40% Below Normal
Sale Prices Up 3.5% Since December (Even though they are down since last March.)
For Buyers:
Rates defied industry predictions once again and rose over a point from 5.99% to 7.1% between February 2nd and March 2nd. For the past 4 weeks, rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, figuratively “pinching the hose” on demand during the popular Spring season for buyers.
At 9,001, contracts are at their 4th lowest count since 2005, the lowest counts were in 2006-2008 and normal range is 11,000-13,000. Buyers are not the only ones holding back due to higher mortgage rates, sellers are too. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded going back at least 23 years.
This may be shocking to some as there has been a 200% increase in supply year-over-year, but last year at this time supply was merely 4,820 active listings. The reality is that ARMLS active supply spiked over 300% last year between March and October, peaking around 20,000 listings. But since then it has declined 27% to 14,772, which is the 4th lowest supply count since 2005 for this time of year. Typically, active listings should be between 20,000-24,000 to be considered normal. In a nutshell, while higher rates have stunted demand for now, they are not expected to stay high forever. If and when they come down, expect demand to increase again.
For Sellers:
Low-level demand combined with even lower-level supply equals a seller’s market for Greater Phoenix. Not a crazy one like the last 2 years, but since coming out of a buyer’s market last December sale price measures have stopped dropping and have risen a modest 3.5% so far.
Sellers continued to pay for buyers’ closing costs on 48% of MLS closings in March, with half paying $9,000 or more. Fewer new listings hitting the market has meant less pressure on sellers to reduce their list price. As a result, weekly price reductions are actually falling instead of rising as they typically would at this time of year. Only 13-14% of inventory issued a price reduction last week compared to 25% of inventory last October.
The average negotiation is 97.4% of the last list price this month, an improvement from 96.5% in January and in line with the pre-pandemic market of 2019. Current median days on market prior to an accepted contract is 32 days. Most seasonally-adjusted housing measures are reflective of a weak seller’s market similar to 2015 where properties appreciated an average of 4.6% annually.
The majority of cities in Greater Phoenix are now in seller’s markets. Only 5 cities remain in buyer’s markets at this stage. They are Queen Creek, Maricopa, Buckeye, Casa Grande, and Sun City West. The outskirts of town tend to be the first to enter buyer’s markets and the last to come out. While these cities are lagging the rest of the valley, their measures have all improved 8-14% over the past month.
Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month Donna tells us about the Rancho Ko-Ma-Ke, a beautiful historic stone structure near south mountain.
Nestled between Highland Canal and South Mountain, in the middle of a city park, quietly stands a shaded two-story stone building. A plaque near the building’s entrance indicates that this structure is on the City of Phoenix Historic register, but city staff knows little about its former life.
The name Rancho Ko-Mat-Ke conjures up images of some large estate, but in actuality, it contained only 35 acres of citrus and dates along with the Spanish Mission Revival home. It was a quiet place in the desert whose means Hump-Turtle’s Back in O’odham.
John and Helen Albrecht purchased the land in 1932, and built their home sometime after that. While the 1938 city directory lists them residing on South 16th Street near the Highland Canal, later directory entries also listed it as a guest ranch.
According to ads and a brochure, the five bedroom Tufa stone construction offered exclusive residency for only eight people from October through June. Each room had its own bath and the secluded area offered a unique retreat. Glassed-in sun porches and places for private sun bathing along with areas for shuffleboard, badminton, croquet, and quoits (a game similar to ring toss) were amenities were offered to the guests for the mere price of $35-$70 per week. According to the brochure, “Rancho Ko-Mat-Ke” [was] not a Dude Ranch, Hotel or Resort, but a Spacious Country home.” The elevation of 1,100 feet provided views of Phoenix which was six miles away in 1942.
One distinguished guest was Baroness Bettina Von Hutten who came for the winter in 1942. Born in Pennsylvania, she was once married to a German Baron. The Baroness was the author of 23 mystery romances and later moved to England in 1948 where she died in 1957. Whether she worked on a new novel during her stay is not known, but she did give at least one lecture before a local women’s group.
John Albrecht died in 1945 and the property changed hands a number of times before the city acquired it in 1972. For a short period, Rancho Ko-Mat-Ke may have been a retreat for Sears and Roebuck executives and later it was a youth hostel. Today it is the headquarters for the Southern Division of the Phoenix Parks Department located in Circle K Park between 12th and 16th Streets and the Highland Canal and South Mountain Avenue.
We’ve sold all or our current listings! See our listings page for updates as that changes. We may have another one coming soon. This one was a challenge, due to the huge garage and storage that the owner was using for his unique collection of VW vehicles. But now they are ready to blast off to their next adventure.
So, just to jog your memory, here are the details on this listing.
SOLD! 10018 E Indigo St., Mesa. 4br/3ba, 3,000sf. Closing this month.
If you want space for all your toys, your garden and all your things, this roomy home and huge lot will be great for you.
The owners updated the flooring, the kitchen, the back yard and added a huge, four-bay garage. This is perfect for the auto enthusiast, or for all the toys.
That’s in addition to the three-car garage that is attached to the home! The additional garage bays are 30 feet deep and the entire garage is 50 feet wide with 8 foot tall doors.
You will be able to sit out on the back patio with amazing views of the mountains, with Usery Mountain Regional park almost out your back door. Whether you are all about indoor or outdoors, you will love this one!
From what we are hearing, prices may push further downward. So, if you are thinking of selling, do it now before the market forced another price drop. We can help!
Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month Donna tells us about the Fiesta del Sol. Long before the pride parade and all the other fun that we have parading ourselves around, this event was the big one in the valley
Reg Manning, an Arizona Republic photographer and artist, lamented in an October 1937 column that Phoenix had been a “dead pan” city for years. But he sensed that things had begun to turn around first with the Dons Club Superstition Gold Treks, then the recent initiation of the Jaycee Rodeo earlier in 1937, and finally the Chamber of Commerce was about to kick off the Fall visitor season with a three-day event: Fiesta del Sol!
Yes, this was going to be huge. Sponsors had acquired the loan of 3000 costumes from Hollywood studios that residents could rent for a nominal fee. The Arizona Republic provided suggestions on how one could make their own costume. The streets would be decorated, along with cars, and even some homes.
Downtown stores were encouraged to decorate in a Spanish motif particularly using the colors of red, yellow, and green. Employees gladly dressed up during Fiesta Week just as they had for Rodeo Week. All this community engagement was intended to create a dynamic atmosphere.
The Chamber of Commerce had even gone so far as to commission a painting by local artist David Swing. Titled “Fiesta,” it was hung in the chamber’s building in August and then given to Phoenix Junior College.
Of course, there was a parade which travelled along Washington Street. Floats with masked young ladies vying to be crowned queen of the Fiesta, horse riders in Spanish attire, and wagons filled with costumed people and so much more. The streets were packed with attendees.
Outdoor evening activities included street dancing and “Casa Manana” under a tent at Central and McDowell that the chamber planned to transform “into an artificial Spanish garden with splashing fountain, palm trees and myriads of colored lights.” Music for dancing was to be provided by Phil Harris and his orchestra. While that name may not ring a bell, this group played for Jack Benny on his J-E-L-L-O radio show and was quite well-known by radio listeners.
Officials from the Tournament of Roses Parade attended that first year and complimented the Chamber of Commerce suggesting that Fiesta del Sol could become a “major national attraction.” The following year, the Thunderbirds was formed as part of the chamber. Its initial task in 1938 was to manage all aspects of running Fiesta del Sol.
And there is no doubt that coverage in the November 1938 Arizona Highways helped create a bigger buzz about the event which was purported to be larger than the first year. The 1940 edition of the parade saw it moved to traveling south on Central Avenue. Casa Manana was held at the Shrine Auditorium and there were multiple dance spots throughout the festivities, some indoors and some in the streets.
Unfortunately, the 1941 Fiesta del Sol was the last ever held. Reg Manning, if he were alive, might wonder why we are in a “dead pan” state again.
Our friends at the Cromford Report are confirming what we are seeing. There is an excess of supply and prices are down a little bit from last year.
If you are looking to buy, we suggest you get it done before the inventory is bought up and we return to increasing prices.
We don’t expect prices to drop significantly, a la 2008. There are just too many people moving to Arizona still for that to change.
So says Cromford…
“Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2023 compared with March 1, 2022 for all areas & types:
Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 14,739 versus 4,588 last year – up 221% – but down 5.5% from 15,598 last month
Pending Listings: 5,911 versus 8,333 last year – down 29% – but up 15.7% from 5,109 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,693 versus 7,993 last year – down 29% – but up 31% from 4,357 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $271.14 versus $284.56 last year – down 4.7% – but up 1.2% from $267.83 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $413,000 versus $445,000 last year – down 7.2% – but up 0.7% from $410,000 last month
Volumes remain much lower than a year ago, but they have recovered some ground. Monthly sales were down 29% compared with 2022, which is a major improvement on the 39% deficit last month.
Although the market remains unhealthy from a volume perspective, it is warming up from a supply versus demand point of view. The supply of active listings has been trending lower for several months, although this is not true of the luxury sector, and particularly Paradise Valley. You might expect demand to be very weak because mortgage rates have jumped back over 7% again. However buyers are not capitulating and the growth of listings under contract is much healthier than we expected under these circumstances. The 16.6% growth in listings under contract since the beginning of February, and the 31% increase in the monthly sales rate are surprisingly strong.
The balance between supply and demand has shifted significantly over the past 3 months and there is now upward pressure on pricing once more. We note that the monthly median sales price is up 0.7% over the last month while the average price per square foot for closed listings has risen by 1.2%. Pricing remains weaker than a year ago, when we were still in a boom period with exceptionally low supply. But the trend is now pointing higher, not lower. It is possible that the Federal Reserve may do more damage to interest rates, but the risk premium in mortgage rates is currently far above normal. This means there is plenty of scope for lower mortgage rates to be introduced if the risk abates.
The current pricing trend may contradict the claims by various amateur pundits and their daft YouTube channels, but there is almost no data that supports the theory that prices are going to collapse from this point. For this to happen we would need to have a wave of new supply creating problems for sellers. While this is always a remote possibility, there is very little foreclosure activity and low levels of mortgage delinquency. So where is this flood of homes for sale supposed to come from. The builders have cut back drastically on new home permits, so we are more likely to see a shortage of homes for sale than a glut. And rising mortgage rate discourage homeowners with mortgages from selling because that would mean the loss of their cheap loan and the acquisition of a much more expensive one.
Even though buyers are scarce, homes for sale remain stubbornly hard to find. It is always good for sellers when they have less competition from other sellers. This means much less need to cut their asking price, especially if the are patient and present their property well.”
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